Cryptocurrencies fell in the last six months: analyzing the trust crisis in Strategy and macroeconomic pressures

The crypto landscape has faced significant pressures in the second half of 2025, with particular vulnerability in companies that heavily bet on bitcoin as a reserve strategy. The most emblematic case is Strategy, whose shares have experienced disappointing performance that contrasts sharply with the relative resilience of bitcoin itself. But why did these shares fall so sharply while the sector maintains hopes in cryptocurrencies? It is essential to understand the underlying factors.

Strategy records its worst period since adopting bitcoin six years ago

Strategy (MSTR) shares completed December 2025 with their first six consecutive months of decline since the company adopted bitcoin as a treasury asset in August 2020. According to data shared by analyst Chris Millas, the company experienced uninterrupted monthly losses from July to December, including declines of -16.78% in August, -16.36% in October, -34.26% in November, and -14.24% in December.

What is notable about this contraction is not only its magnitude but its persistence. Historically, sharp drops in Strategy were followed by vigorous recoveries of over 40% within months. During the 2022 bear market, for example, periods of pressure reversed quickly. However, the second half of 2025 marked a break from that pattern, suggesting a structural revaluation rather than a simple panic sell-off.

At the end of 2025, Strategy was trading at $151.95 with an annualized performance of -49.35%. In comparison, bitcoin was at more stable levels, although also under pressure from global macroeconomic factors. Cryptocurrencies in general have faced headwinds that go beyond sector-specific dynamics.

The divergence with bitcoin exposes an uncomfortable truth

Despite Strategy continuing to aggressively buy bitcoin throughout the decline period — acquiring 1,229 BTC for approximately $108.8 million on December 29 — its shares failed to benefit from the digital asset’s relative strength. Bitcoin, although moderately pressured, showed greater resilience than the company’s shares.

This disconnect reveals that Strategy’s performance is linked to broader factors than just holding BTC. The macroeconomic environment, investor sentiment, and the valuation of tech companies played critical roles. The Nasdaq 100, of which Strategy is a constituent, rose 20.17% in 2025, contrasting sharply with the company’s stock decline. This misalignment suggests that investors are specifically pricing in the risk associated with MicroStrategy’s bitcoin concentration strategy.

Macroeconomic pressures: inflation and higher rates

A key factor behind why cryptocurrencies and risk assets fell in the second half of 2025 was the resurgence of inflation concerns. Recent analyses by experts from the Peterson Institute and Lazard warn that U.S. inflation could exceed 4% in 2026.

These researchers point out that multiple simultaneous pressures could accelerate inflation: trade tariffs, tense labor markets, potential deportations of migrants, high fiscal deficits, and looser financial conditions could outpace productivity gains from artificial intelligence. If these pressures materialize, the Federal Reserve would have less room to cut interest rates as aggressively as markets and crypto participants expected.

Persistent inflation and higher interest rates are historically damaging to risk and speculative assets, a category in which many still classify bitcoin and crypto companies despite their growing institutional adoption.

The disconnect between fundamentals and prices

What makes Strategy’s experience particularly instructive is that it demonstrates the complexity of investing in cryptocurrencies through traditional corporate vehicles. Although the company continued increasing its bitcoin holdings — owning 672,497 BTC worth approximately $50.44 billion as of December 28 — stock markets penalized this strategy.

This suggests that investors do not simply value Strategy based on the value of its bitcoin reserves but consider factors such as operational efficiency, concentration risk, and the broader macroeconomic environment. The underperformance relative to the Nasdaq 100 indicates that Strategy was seen as particularly vulnerable to the uncertainty of higher rates.

Reflection: cryptocurrencies fell because the macro environment tightened

In summary, why cryptocurrencies and especially companies like Strategy fell in the second half of 2025 is due to a confluence of factors: increasing macroeconomic pressures, renewed inflation concerns, the potential for more persistently high interest rates, and a repricing of the specific risk of companies concentrating their assets in bitcoin. Although the crypto sector maintains positive long-term prospects, the short term showed that even institutional adoption does not immunize against adverse macroeconomic cycles.