## The Technological Victory and Philosophical Dilemma of Ethereum: Why Vitalik's 2030 Outlook Sparks Controversy

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin's recent lengthy discourse reveals a complex paradox: although Ethereum has technically solved industry-long problems, his concerns about the network's future direction indicate a deeper crisis. Buterin is not simply declaring victory; instead, he offers serious warnings about ecological choices.

## From Theory to Reality: The End of the Triangle Dilemma

Blockchain developers have long been constrained by a hypothesis—the so-called "scalability triangle" theory. This theory claims that decentralized networks can only achieve two of three core attributes simultaneously: decentralization, security, and high throughput. In his latest exposition, Vitalik asserts that this era has truly ended, not just in theory but validated through "actual running code."

To illustrate this shift, Buterin makes a historic comparison. BitTorrent, launched in 2000, provided massive total throughput and high decentralization but lacked a consensus mechanism. In contrast, Bitcoin, introduced in 2009, achieved highly decentralized consensus but had extremely low throughput due to the proof-of-work requirement replicated at every node. Ethereum, by 2025, equipped with PeerDAS and the latest zero-knowledge virtual machines (ZK-EVMs), has integrated these two different paths—maintaining decentralization, consensus, and high throughput simultaneously.

Buterin points out that data availability sampling (DAS) is already running on mainnet, and ZK-EVMs have reached production-level performance, pending security audits. This means that from 2025 onward, Ethereum has theoretically broken the decade-long lock.

## Potential Ideological Traps

However, Buterin's core concern is not purely technical. He explicitly contrasts two very different development paths. On one hand, the network could devolve into political meme coins, tokenized dollars, and tools that artificially generate usage signals—characteristic of current market cycles. On the other hand, Ethereum should adhere to its original promise: becoming a truly neutral "world computer."

This choice involves not only technical direction but also fundamental philosophy. Buterin introduces the concept of the "walkaway test"—a key standard for measuring the true utility of applications. The test asks: even if the creator disappears entirely, can the application still operate independently? In other words, can the application continue functioning without fraud, censorship, or third-party control?

He warns that even with decentralized protocols, many current applications still rely on centralized services, creating hidden vulnerabilities. The true Ethereum vision requires meeting two conditions simultaneously: global accessibility and genuine decentralization, spanning protocol layers, node software, and application layers.

## Phased Upgrade Plan

Buterin outlines a detailed multi-year roadmap. In 2026, major increases in gas limits will be implemented, achieved not through ZK-EVMs but via techniques like BALs and ePBS. During this period, users will be able to run ZK-EVM nodes for the first time.

Between 2026 and 2028, gas price reviews and network structure adjustments are expected, with executable payloads shifting to "blobs" storage solutions to further optimize efficiency. From 2027 to 2030, as ZK-EVMs become the primary method for block verification, larger-scale gas limit increases are anticipated—marking a fundamental shift in Ethereum's verification mechanism from full replication to zero-knowledge proof systems.

## Long-term Vision: Distributed Block Construction

Beyond immediate scalability plans, Buterin also points to a long-term pursuit: "distributed block building"—which he calls the "long-term ideal of the ecosystem's holy grail." The goal is to realize a future where complete transaction blocks "never form in a single location," though he admits this may not be urgent for quite some time.

The significance of this shift lies in risk reduction. By decentralizing the block creation process, the network can reduce the risks associated with centralized real-time intervention in transaction addition. It also creates a "better geographical fairness environment," ensuring users worldwide can access the network equitably.

## Technical Achievements Are Not the End

Ultimately, Buterin's New Year discourse is both a summary of technological progress and a correction of philosophical direction. He argues that the technical means to solve the triangle dilemma are now in hand, and the engineering justifications previously used to defend centralization are no longer valid. The remaining question, as he states, is whether the community will leverage this power to build a "world computer" that passes the "walkaway test," or continue chasing the next market cycle's economic signals. This choice is the true test Ethereum faces—and one that, according to Buterin, does not look entirely optimistic.