From Chaos to Order in 2026: Industry Transformation through DeFi2.0 and Tokenomics2.0

2025 was a pivotal year for the cryptocurrency market. Rather than technological innovation, dramatic shifts in market psychology and regulatory environment reset the industry’s overall values.

The End of the First Curve and the Arrival of the Second Curve

Over the past 16 years, the crypto market has been supported by “expectations of consensus.” Speculation and wealth effects have cascaded, with new entrants replacing previous ones, driving growth. However, the large-scale liquidation event in October 2025 clearly demonstrated the limits of this mechanism.

Major industry players are quietly beginning to shift direction. Resources are rapidly being allocated to PayFi, RWA Finance, and Onchain Asset Management, with a strategic move from speculative assets toward practical financial infrastructure.

Coinbase’s 2026 Market Outlook report presents intriguing data. As of Q4 2025, the global stablecoin supply reached $305 billion, with a trading volume of $4.76 trillion. The supply accounts for 2.0% of the world’s M0 total supply of $15 trillion, and usage corresponds to 3.2% of the global currency trading volume of $1500 trillion. Notably, the average activity level of stablecoins exceeds that of traditional fiat currencies by 160%. Given the trajectory of a 65% CAGR over the past four years, the moment when Open Finance opens the mainstream market is imminent.

Rigidity of Traditional Financial Systems and Delayed Adaptation

The current global economy is often compared to the pre-war period (1910-1935). Inflation has shifted into stagflation, and traditional monetary policies of central banks are losing effectiveness. Policy makers are increasingly relying on “emotional value adjustments” rather than real economic measures.

An interesting phenomenon is that traditional financial institutions are adopting a more defensive stance. In December 2025, Nasdaq announced plans to request the SEC to extend stock trading hours to 7x24. This is not just an extension of hours but a fundamental structural reform in response to Open Finance competition. Simultaneously, many financial institutions are rapidly building internal RWA tokenization systems.

However, the market itself is moving even faster. Market sentiment, which surged in Q2 due to regulatory shifts, cooled in Q3, and in Q4, it shifted again toward pragmatic transformation. This three-phase cycle reflects the psychological process of the “Gartner Curve,” an inevitable fluctuation experienced by all players during periods of major change.

The “Medievalization” of Data-Heavy Regulations and Market Paralysis

With the transition to the digital age, a misconception has spread worldwide: “If data exists, it can be utilized; if methods exist, they can be regulated.” Stricter KYC regulations have resulted in over 85% of startups being blocked from fundraising. The costs of compliance outweigh risk mitigation, rapidly eroding space for innovation.

This phenomenon is called “Data Medievalization,” where doctrinal dependence on old management systems accelerates entropy. While traditional financial systems recognize the need for reform, they are caught between protecting vested interests and transitioning to a new order, rendering them immobile.

Bypassing Strategies by Emerging Developing Countries and Geopolitical Shifts

Meanwhile, emerging economies are adopting strategies to bypass traditional frameworks. Nigeria, India, Brazil, Indonesia, and Bangladesh have seen exponential growth in stablecoins and Open Finance adoption over the past three years, often surpassing local fiat transaction volumes.

This rapid expansion of “off-balance sheet assets” contrasts with stagnating development in advanced economies. Developed markets face growth restrictions due to regulation, while emerging markets grow rapidly in regulatory gaps. This shift is not just about market share but signals a fundamental restructuring of the global economic order and geopolitical relations. Within five years, the world’s economic structure is likely to be fundamentally rebuilt.

The Essence of RWA Revival and Market Misconceptions

The 2025 RWA (Real World Assets) boom results from the collapse of the first curve’s credit and the lag in defining the second curve’s terminology. However, most of the market perceives RWA simply as “asset tokenization crowdfunding.”

According to Coinbase data, current RWA assets mainly include T-Bills, Commodities, Liquid Funds, and Credit Loans. These are all quantifiable financial assets with clear liquidity and tokenization value. However, the landscape will change significantly by 2026. DeFi and real-world crypto finance from emerging developing economies will become new sources of asset supply, running parallel to RWA markets. Payment via stablecoins and supply chain finance are expected to become rapid growth tracks.

DAT2.0 and Tokenomics2.0: Evolution of Financial Protocols

Coinbase’s newly proposed DAT2.0 and Tokenomics2.0 are essentially advanced forms of DeFi 2.0.

DAT1.0 (Digital Asset Tracker), which spread from MSTR to the global market in 2025, saw a rapid decline in valuation from Q3 to Q4. The reason is simple: the friction of capital multipliers was too small, the story was transparent, the Davis Double effect was linear, and market psychology reversed, causing immediate loss of value.

In contrast, DAT2.0 aims to fuse the practical layer of DeFi with the value circulation of traditional finance. Companies like Ondo, Ethena, Maple, and Robinhood have already demonstrated promising models, and more new entrants are expected to grow rapidly in 2026. Because it enables sustainable value creation, long-term growth is anticipated, unlike the valuation fluctuations seen with DAT1.0.

Tokenomics2.0 is a broader concept. It functions as an advanced form of financial engineering, including Liquid Engineering and Yield Engineering. In each financial scene, Tokenomics acts like a “financial circuit,” continuously optimizing the system. Protocols like Pendle’s PT-YT structure will gradually form during the industry’s evolution.

Key elements include:

• Value Capture: Essential for the second curve but independent of Tokenomics2.0
• Token Buybacks: Necessary to ensure liquidity and clearing capacity
• Financial Engineering: Customization according to specific scenarios is inevitable

Outlook for 2026

The industry in 2025 saw most previous forecasts materialize. The end of Kondratiev cycles, transition to the second DeFi curve, actualization of regulations, and the rise of emerging markets—all are progressing simultaneously.

Whether 2026 becomes a turning point depends on the following nonlinear factors:

1. Speed of Information Propagation: Evolving at 2.5 to 5 times the pace of past Kondratiev cycles
2. Geopolitical Pressure: Increasing inevitability of contradictions exploding, reducing predictability
3. AI×Crypto Effect: Nonlinear, industry-revolutionary impact

However, human societal management and the emotional digestion process of a generation remain fundamentally unchanged. Many similarities with 100 years ago persist, making it difficult to completely escape historical paradigms.

Market participants need not rely on linear forecasts but must develop adaptability to nonlinear changes. Incorporating unexpected shifts into strategies and establishing flexible decision-making systems will be key to surviving 2026.