Black Swan 2026 Revealed? US Customs Decision and the Liquidity Storm Approaching

Dear friends, today we won’t discuss technical details or hype altcoins. We need to face a macro risk that the market is undervaluing: the upcoming Supreme Court ruling in the US regarding the legality of the “countervailing tariffs” policy. This is not a short-term headline, but could be the starting point for a chain reaction – where liquidity contracts and no risk asset remains unaffected.

1. Countdown to the Ruling: Why Is This Time Different? According to the original schedule, the Supreme Court was expected to deliver a verdict on January 9th. However, the decision has been postponed, and the market is leaning heavily towards a scenario of government failure. If the ruling overturns the tariff policy, two major consequences could occur: Severe budget shortfall: Revenue from tariffs, estimated at around $350 billion per year, could disappear. Moreover, the government faces the risk of having to refund up to $130 billion in back taxes to businesses. “Plan B” is just a temporary patch: If alternative trade provisions are activated, the tariff cap will be around 15%, with a validity period of 150 days. In the medium to long term, the budget gap remains. Cautious perspective: Don’t believe the slogan “bad news creates a bottom.” Tariffs are one of the pillars supporting demand for US government bonds. When this pillar wobbles, the Treasury Department will be forced to issue more bonds to compensate – and the bond market will be the first to suffer a shock.
2. Liquidity Black Hole: The Contagion Chain from Bonds to Crypto The most dangerous mistake in the market is thinking that “tax refunds will improve corporate profits.” In reality, the opposite often happens: Tax refunds do not mean money injection: Companies tend to reduce debt and increase cash reserves rather than expand investments. Increased bond issuance pressure: To fill the budget gap, the Treasury may accelerate bond issuance. Coupled with the Fed’s balance sheet shrinking, rising yields will pull capital out of risk assets. Crypto is prone to liquidation focus: The correlation between Bitcoin and US stocks is currently high. If a “stocks – bonds decline together” scenario occurs, the leveraged crypto market will face strong sell-offs. Lesson learned: Rapid crashes often start in the bond market, spread to stocks, and then sweep through crypto via chain liquidations.
3. Survival Guide: Don’t Become “Stray Bullet” In uncertain times, the top priority is capital preservation. Position management is more important than predicting directions: Reduce leverage, maintain a reasonable cash ratio. Less profit is better than a “blow-up.” Beware of illusions of “safe assets”: Gold and Bitcoin can decline together when liquidity shrinks. In reality, USD and short-term bonds tend to hold up better during liquidity crises. Monitor three key signals:

• Whether long-term US bond yields exceed risk thresholds;
• Whether key support levels for Bitcoin are broken;
• Whether the government activates alternative trade provisions. Conclusion Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. When macro risks accumulate, high-volatility assets can “break” very quickly, and over-leveraged traders often can’t wait for a rebound. Brief message: Lower your stance, wait for the storm to pass. Surviving major volatility is the sustainable competitive advantage in the market.