SOL Technical Outlook: Base Formation Emerges After Extended Corrective Phase

Solana remains within a broader corrective structure following the sharp rejection from the $224–$253 macro supply zone, aligned with the 0.786–1.0 Fibonacci retracement. That rejection marked a distribution top, triggering a prolonged bearish phase and a deep pullback toward long-term demand.

Recent price action shows SOL stabilizing above the $120–$135 macro demand zone, with buyers gradually stepping in and forming a base-building structure. Momentum has improved, though the higher-timeframe trend has not yet fully reversed.

EMA Structure (Bearish Bias, Improving Short-Term Momentum)

20 EMA: $135.89
50 EMA: $137.49
100 EMA: $149.06
200 EMA: $160.43

SOL has reclaimed the 20 & 50 EMA, signaling short-term bullish momentum and recovery intent. However, price remains below the 100 & 200 EMA, keeping the medium- to long-term structure corrective.

The $149–$160 zone represents a major dynamic resistance cluster, where selling pressure is likely to increase.

Fibonacci & Price Structure

1 Fib: $253.47
0.786 Fib: $224.22
0.618 Fib: $201.25
0.5 Fib: $185.12
0.382 Fib: $168.99
0.236 Fib: $149.03
Fib 0: $116.77

SOL is currently trading just above the 0.236 Fib ($149), a key structural pivot. Sustained acceptance above this level could allow price to advance toward $169–$185, where Fibonacci resistance and EMA confluence align.

Failure to hold above $145–$137 would weaken the recovery structure and raise the probability of a retest of the $130–$116 macro demand zone.

Structural Context

Price action shows higher lows forming from the December bottom, suggesting early accumulation behavior. However, SOL remains below major overhead resistance, keeping the current move classified as a corrective recovery rather than a confirmed trend reversal.

A decisive daily close above $160–$169 would be required to shift market structure back toward bullish continuation.

RSI Momentum

RSI (14): 67

RSI is firmly above neutral, reflecting strong improving momentum and growing buyer participation. RSI approaching the upper range suggests potential near-term consolidation before continuation.

📊 Key Levels

Resistance

$149 (0.236 Fib)

$160 (200 EMA)

$169 (0.382 Fib)

$185 (0.5 Fib)

Support

$145–$137 (short-term)

$130 (range support)

$116.8 (Fib 0 / macro demand)

📌 Summary

SOL is attempting a structured recovery after defending a major long-term demand zone. While short-term momentum has turned positive, the broader structure remains corrective unless price can reclaim $160–$169 with strength. Until that occurs, upside moves are likely to face heavy resistance, keeping SOL in a range-bound recovery phase.
$SOL