#策略性加码BTC Watch out! The US December CPI release tonight could rewrite the recent market trend.

Why pay attention to this data? Simply put, CPI directly influences the Federal Reserve's policy stance, and policy stance determines market liquidity — which almost directly impacts the price of risk assets like ETH.

Let's look at three scenarios:

**Scenario 1: CPI Surges (above 2.8%)**
Inflation signals turn red, and the Fed is likely to continue maintaining high interest rates, pushing rate cuts further down the line. Funds will instinctively flow into safe assets, with risk assets taking the hit. ETH may come under pressure, possibly testing the support level at 2900.

**Scenario 2: Data Meets Expectations (around 2.7%)**
This is a "neither surprising nor disappointing" situation. Signs of controlled inflation will ease market tension, but the Fed may not act swiftly. Expectations for rate cuts in March will be adjusted accordingly. ETH is likely to enter a sideways consolidation, with limited upward or downward movement. At this point, more attention should be paid to technical analysis and on-chain developments.

**Scenario 3: CPI Surprises with a Downward Drop (below 2.6%)**
This acts as a catalyst for the market. Investors will eagerly price in the story of early rate cuts, easing liquidity expectations, and shifting market sentiment. ETH could surge toward the 3300 level, initiating an upward trend.

**Personal Opinion**
This CPI report is the first major test of 2026. The levels at 2900 and 3300 are not just numbers; they are ETH's short-term critical thresholds. In the face of such uncertainty, protecting your principal and developing a clear plan is always wiser than rushing for quick gains. Wait until the market direction is confirmed before executing your plan.