Overall Environment (Applicable to BTC & ETH): The Federal Reserve is transitioning from high interest rates to easing. The market's core contradiction lies in the "speed of inflation decline" versus "interest rate cut expectations in pace and magnitude." US stocks remain in a relatively high valuation zone, with risk assets generally showing a risk appetite recovery but not extreme greed. Institutional funds' allocation to BTC mainly serves as "digital gold / alternative asset after reducing bonds," while ETH leans more towards technology growth + production factors (land/computing power).

Macroeconomic Correlation:
BTC remains significantly inversely sensitive to the USD Index DXY and US Treasury yields: DXY retreating, real interest rates weakening → favorable for BTC and ETH to maintain a medium-term bullish structure. If inflation unexpectedly rises or the Fed reverts to hawkish rhetoric, both BTC/ETH could quickly give back gains.

On-Chain Dynamics (On-Chain)
BTC On-Chain Structure (Directional Assessment): Active addresses remain slightly above historical median, with no extreme bubble activity, indicating speculative sentiment has improved but is not out of control. Long-term holder (LTH) supply share remains relatively high but with small distribution, suggesting some old wallets are reducing positions at high levels, but the main trend remains "strong hands dominant."
Exchange Net Inflows: Neutral slightly leaning outflows, indicating outflows → favoring cold wallets/long-term holdings → medium-term bullish; if large net inflows occur consecutively in the future, beware of phase top signals.
ETH On-Chain Structure (Directional Assessment): Staking ratio remains high and slowly rising, circulating supply decreasing, providing some price support. DeFi TVL has steadily recovered after the last decline but has not returned to historical peaks, indicating mild risk appetite. L2 and Rollup activity continues to increase, gas fee median remains moderate, and on-chain usage is becoming more "practical rather than purely speculative."

Technical Structure (Technical)
The following ranges are for structural and strategic reference, not precise quotes. Please fine-tune key levels based on your latest exchange prices.

BTC Technical Structure:
Daily trend: Price above the 200-day moving average, still in a medium-term bullish trend. The previous high area forms an important resistance zone:
- Resistance Zone 1 (above): near previous high
- Resistance Zone 2: if broken with volume, could open a new trend space.
Support zones:
- Support Zone 1: recent consolidation lower boundary near the 50-day moving average
- Support Zone 2: below that, overlapping with the 200-day moving average and previous breakout platform, structural defense level.
Current pattern suggests that if oscillating below resistance, it’s a high-level consolidation within a bullish trend; a volume breakout and stabilization above resistance for several days could signal the start of a new upward wave. If breaking below Support Zone 1 with increased volume, watch for a retest of Support Zone 2.

ETH Technical Structure:
Daily trend also above the 200-day moving average but with a weaker slope than BTC, indicating slightly weaker relative strength.
Key Resistance:
- Resistance Zone 1: previous dense daily trading area and high
- Resistance Zone 2: previous significant decline platform before a sharp retracement
Key Support:
- Support Zone 1: lower boundary of current consolidation platform
- Support Zone 2: below that, the overlap of the 200-day moving average and previous lows.
Structural points: ETH tends to follow BTC’s direction with amplified beta. If BTC breaks through previous highs strongly, ETH likely follows and attempts to challenge its resistance zones. If BTC retraces to Support Zone 2, ETH may show a deeper correction; leverage should be cautiously increased.

Risk Signals (Risk):
1. Common Risks:
- Macro uncertainty, unexpected inflation/employment data → Fed rate hike expectations re-emerge → risk assets under pressure.
- Policy and regulation: US/EU tightening policies on exchanges, stablecoins, or ETH staking activities.
2. Market Structural Risks:
- High leverage long positions: sustained positive funding rates and high levels may trigger a large downward shadow or waterfall liquidation.
- Futures positions hitting new highs but with stagnant volume → inflated leverage, beware of "long liquidation" cascade.
3. On-Chain and Technical Risks (ETH bias):
- Black swan events in major DeFi protocols or cross-chain bridges could cause short-term liquidity crises and selling pressure on ETH.

Strategy Modeling (Quant):
Below is a schematic of typical range and position control frameworks, to be fine-tuned based on your actual account size and risk tolerance.

BTC Short-Medium Term Strategy Framework:
Timeframe: 4H–1D, recommended style: trend following + phased retracement.
Bullish participation approach:
- Range A (near Support Zone 1): staggered building positions, total position not exceeding 20–30% of capital; stop-loss below Support Zone 1 upon confirmed breakdown and close.
- Range B (breakout of Resistance Zone 1 with volume): follow breakout, add 10–20%; strictly use trailing stop-loss (e.g., following recent 3–5 day lows or ATR).
Backtest assumptions (typical trend strategy):
- Daily breakout above previous high and stabilization for 3–5 days.
- Historical success rate in BTC: about 45–55%, profit/loss ratio: about 1:2 – 1:3.
- Key: strict stop-loss discipline and avoid averaging into tops against trend.

ETH Short-Medium Term Strategy Framework:
Timeframe: 4H–1D, style: follow BTC direction + relative strength switching.
- When BTC is in its support-resistance central zone and ETH/BTC shows a bottoming/rebound, consider phased positions near Support Zone 1, with total position not exceeding 15–25%.
- If ETH breaks Support Zone 1 and ETH/BTC hits a new short-term low, reduce positions.

Portfolio Suggestions:
- Conservative: BTC : ETH ≈ 2 : 1
- Aggressive: BTC : ETH ≈ 1 : 1 or favoring the stronger phase (adjust dynamically).

Technical Indicators (MACD, RSI):
> The following is a professional framework for daily MACD/RSI usage for BTC & ETH, for reference in your chart software.

BTC: MACD + RSI Framework
- MACD (Daily):
DIF > DEA and above zero → healthy bullish trend;
If price hits new high but MACD histogram shortens, DIF not making new high → momentum divergence, watch for phase correction.
- RSI (Daily): 40–60 oscillation → trend consolidation;
Near 60–70 indicates a relatively strong trend, consider dips to 5–10 day MA for bullish opportunities;
If RSI > 70 and price near resistance → avoid chasing aggressively.
Practical reference:
1. Bullish zone: MACD bullish cross above zero + RSI 60–70
2. Risk zone:
Price hits new high but MACD and RSI do not → top divergence;
RSI > 70 with volume increase → beware of short-term pullback.

ETH: MACD + RSI Framework
- MACD (Daily):
Often shows “following BTC but with larger volatility”: if BTC MACD remains above zero, ETH may show a dead cross but not break key support, indicating “oscillating shakeout” rather than trend reversal.
- RSI (Daily):
50 as a key dividing line:
- Above 50 long-term → relatively strong;
- Below 50 long-term → rebounds mainly from reducing positions.
- Practical reference:
When BTC’s MACD and RSI remain bullish, but ETH’s MACD shows a brief dead cross without breaking Support Zone 1:
- Consider ETH as a relative retracement opportunity, small positions for low buy-in, using BTC trend as risk control.
If both BTC and ETH show: daily MACD dead cross + RSI below 50 for several days → signal phase risk increase, overall position reduction recommended.

Summary (Overall Conclusion):
Direction and Operation Tendency:
- Medium-term: Both BTC & ETH remain in a bullish structure above the 200-day MA; until macro environment significantly reverses, the medium-long term upward logic persists.
- Short to medium-term: Avoid emotional chasing at resistance zones; wait for retracement to support or confirmed breakout and stabilization before following.
Risk Management:
- Keep single asset positions within 20–30%, avoid high leverage;
- Monitor macro data and regulatory developments closely; if daily MACD/RSI turn weak simultaneously, proactively reduce positions.