#系统风险事件 Looking at this list for 2025, a complex feeling arises in my heart. The events happening this year are not mere black swan incidents by chance, but an inevitable signal of the industry's structural adjustment.

I still remember the crash in 2014, when a wave of exchange failures swept through the industry. At that time, everyone was blaming poor operational management. Over ten years later, when the $1.4 billion theft at Bybit occurred, I finally realized that this lesson had never been truly learned—operational and custodial risks should have been the top considerations long ago, but they were ignored for so long. This incident is just exposing the hidden dangers, forcing everyone to confront past mistakes.

What's even more interesting is the relationship between price and macro factors. In April, the global tariff disputes pushed Bitcoin prices down, which was hard to imagine in the early days—Bitcoin was supposed to be a "firewall." But now it has become a high-beta asset, resonating with risk assets. What does this indicate? Crypto assets are no longer marginal speculative instruments but are now part of the macro risk chain. By October, the $19 billion liquidation wave exposed this reflexive risk—ETP funds and high leverage amplified volatility in the same direction.

The evolution of stablecoins is the most intriguing. From trading pairs to the formal regulatory status under the GENIUS Act, and then to their positioning as financial infrastructure, this transformation signifies a deep integration has already occurred. Circle and Ripple applying for national trust bank licenses is not about "entering traditional finance," but rather traditional finance actively embracing this system.

By the end of the year, the verdict on Do Kwon will be implemented, in a sense marking the clearing of the previous cycle. Meanwhile, tightening regulations and accelerated integration show that: market access expansion is truly outpacing risk constraints. HashKey's listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the rapid approval channels for US ETPs—all point in one direction: scale is growing, but vulnerabilities have not been eliminated—in fact, they may be amplified.

This 2025 looks very much like every pivotal year in history. Integration, risk, and structural change are all happening simultaneously.