January 12th, the global financial markets experienced a collective shock! Spot gold surged by 1.8% to $4,592 per ounce, with New York gold futures breaking the $4,600 mark for the first time. Silver soared by 5%, hitting a new all-time high again. Brent crude oil approached $64, with an intraday increase of over 1%, and combined with last week's 6% jump, it marked the largest two-day gain in three months.

However, US stock futures declined under pre-market pressure. Behind this rollercoaster are a double storm—sudden developments in Iran and criminal investigations into Federal Reserve Chair Powell.

First, let's look at Iran. Trump is brewing multiple intervention plans, considering everything from aircraft carrier battle groups to cyberattacks, with specific strategies to be finalized with senior advisors on the 13th. As the fourth-largest oil producer in OPEC, Iran's nearly 2 million barrels per day of exports face potential disruption. Coupled with $6 billion in new investment and short covering, oil prices are soaring—market options even show a large volume of call options at the $80 strike price. Iran has responded strongly, threatening to strike US and Middle Eastern military bases if attacked. Domestic unrest has already resulted in hundreds of deaths, and the tense situation continues to escalate, expanding geopolitical premiums.

Adding to the turmoil is the challenge to the independence of the Federal Reserve. Powell is under criminal investigation over overspending on the Fed headquarters renovation, driven by allies of Trump. Coincidentally, his term ends in May, and a new chairperson is about to be announced. Powell has called this "retaliation for refusing to politically cut rates," and administrative interference has sparked panic on Wall Street.

The overlay of geopolitical conflicts and central bank politicization has led to a frantic inflow of safe-haven funds into precious metals. By 2026, gold prices are expected to rise to $5,000, while the supply-demand gap for silver persists, and oil prices may target $80. In this context, will cryptocurrencies become the new main battlefield for safe-haven assets?