At the beginning of 2026, the capital flow in the crypto market shows a clear two-tiered trend—institutions are swinging back and forth between profit-taking and strategic accumulation. Based on real-time ETF fund movements, the start of the year has not continued the last year's unilateral upward momentum.

BTC ETFs experienced approximately $1.2 billion in net inflows during the first two trading days of January, indicating that institutions are quite determined to replenish their positions early in the year. However, this good momentum didn't last long; from January 7 to 9, the trend reversed, with daily outflows reaching as high as $486 million. ETH ETFs performed similarly, with several hundred million dollars entering initially, but soon after, they also faced net outflows (about $93.81 million on January 9). A new signal is that Morgan Stanley has already submitted an application for a spot Solana ETF, and Bank of America has begun allowing its advisors to recommend Bitcoin ETFs to clients.

This rhythm actually reflects a core dilemma in the current market—funds are constantly switching between "profit-taking" and "rebalancing," making it difficult to generate enough short-term sustained momentum to drive prices higher in a one-sided rally. A more realistic expectation is that high-level oscillations may become the norm.

On-chain data shows a clear divergence in the actions of large whales. The overall holdings of BTC whales have retraced by the end of 2025, indicating that even major institutions are becoming cautious at current high levels. Different whales are adopting different strategies—some are reducing positions to arbitrage at high levels, while others are selectively accumulating during pullbacks. This combination of "strategic defense" and "partial accumulation" precisely illustrates that the market is still searching for a new consensus price.

Overall, the short-term performance of mainstream coins depends on the balance of these two forces—if ETF fund outflows continue to oscillate and whales keep reducing their holdings, downward pressure will be significant; conversely, if at some point institutions start entering the market simultaneously, there could be considerable room for a rebound. But in any case, the environment for a one-sided surge has become very unlikely in the short term.