2026-01-11 21:24:24

The market sentiment is quietly shifting. The balance of bullish and bearish emotions is tilting, and a rebound window is opening on the technical side—this time, it's truly different.

The long-term super cycle has already begun, and the force of accumulation at the bottom is gathering. Those chips suppressed at low levels are like beach balls pressed underwater; how strong will the rebound be? No one can say for sure. But the opportunity is indeed in front of us—an upcoming rally is brewing, and the previously bottomed-out major coins may have more room to chase higher than expected.

The most crucial aspect is the psychological turning point. When most people are extremely bearish and fear has completely dissipated, it actually signals the most dangerous bearish sign. This is exactly the current moment—the psychological surrender at the bottom often precedes a rebound.

Maybe this time, we can all really make it ashore. But I’m still a bit afraid to say it out loud for fear of ruining the atmosphere.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

17 Likes

Reward
17
7
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

GweiWatcher

· 5h ago

The beach ball theory is back again. Every time, they say this time is really different, but what’s the result? --- Bottom surrender = the night before the rebound. I've heard this explanation for three years, I'm exhausted. --- And again, "the rebound rally is brewing." Feels like I hear this phrase every week. --- Really dare to say that those who have gone ashore haven't experienced 2022. --- As for the psychological turning point, it's just the post-mortem expert's specialty. --- Wait, is the metaphor of a beach ball underwater bouncing back serious? --- Every time there's extreme bearishness, it's a sign of a rebound. Those who cut losses must be kicking themselves.

View OriginalReply0

SatoshiHeir

· 6h ago

It should be pointed out that this "Beach Ball Rebound Theory" was already demonstrated in 2017—on-chain data shows that the correlation between psychological turning points and technical rebounds is much lower than you think. But on the other hand, extreme fear is indeed a signal... it's just that the direction of the signal is something you need to interpret yourself.

View OriginalReply0

MemecoinTrader

· 01-11 21:53

nah this is peak sentiment manipulation playbook... the moment everyone's agreeing on the bounce, that's when you know the real move already priced in lol

Reply0

0xLuckbox

· 01-11 21:47

The beach ball analogy is brilliant, but does it always mean a rebound is coming when you say it? Honestly, I'm a bit afraid to believe it, worried about getting trapped again. The part about surrendering at the bottom really hit me; I do feel a bit of panic fading... I just hope this time is truly different, and it's not another false rebound to trick me into leverage. Psychological turning point? I've already surrendered mentally, haha.

View OriginalReply0

ruggedSoBadLMAO

· 01-11 21:47

Coming back with the "This time it's really different" again? Haha, I don't believe you at all. I've heard the rebound theory of beach balls too many times, and in the end, they still get slapped back into the water. But on the other hand, the psychology of capitulation at the bottom is indeed interesting, but I'm more afraid that saying it out loud will really ruin the atmosphere. If this wave crashes again, I'll wait another year. Anyway, I'm already numb; let the rise and fall be up to him. It sounds very reasonable, but my wallet already says it doesn't believe anymore.

View OriginalReply0

OldLeekMaster

· 01-11 21:42

The beach ball analogy is perfect; I'm just afraid that by the time it bounces back, I've already washed ashore. This wave really feels different, but I still want to buy the dip one more time. It's that time again—"afraid to say it will ruin the atmosphere," it happens every time. The psychological turning point is indeed terrifying; no one dares to bet on the final stretch. Wait, is this a sign of another round of harvesting the leek... Never mind, I don't want to think about it. Is the rebound rally coming? Then I should add some positions and give it a try.

View OriginalReply0

WealthCoffee

· 01-11 21:37

The beach ball theory has been heard of, but the key is how long it can really withstand a rebound. It's "this time it's really different" again, why do I believe it every time? The night before the bottom capitulation? Or is it the night before another round of chopping the leeks? 🤔 Feels like I'm always waiting for this psychological turning point, but the result is still the same. The psychological shift is indeed real, just not sure if I can hold on until then. The rebound rally is brewing, so I'll just set up my ladder first. Get out, get out, stop chanting, the more you say, the more uncertain it becomes.

View OriginalReply0