#比特币市场表现 Seeing the news that miner hash rate has dropped by 4%, my first reaction isn't excitement but a reminder to stay calm and analyze objectively. I've heard many claims of "bottom signals" like this, each supported by impressive data—such as VanEck's assertion of a 65% probability of 90-day forward returns and a 72% increase over 180 days. It sounds very professional, but I have to admit: this is a classic case of hindsight bias statistics.

Miner capitulation is indeed a useful indicator, but the question is—when is it a "true capitulation"? When is it just a false move before a whale's shakeout? I've seen too many people go long based on these data, only to get trapped halfway up the mountain, ultimately just comforting themselves with "probabilistically, I'm not wrong."

The key is not to be fooled by "historical patterns." What is the reason behind this 4% hash rate drop? Is it due to rising mining costs? Policy changes? Or strategic adjustments by major mining pools? These details determine whether this signal is genuine or false. Simply claiming "the bottom is here" based on data and going all-in—what's the difference from following hype calls?

My advice is: acknowledge that this can be a positive signal, but also see clearly—no single indicator is enough to confirm a bottom. Stay vigilant, gradually position yourself, and always leave room for contrarian moves. Those who survive long on-chain understand that the biggest enemy isn't missing a rally but making a wrong judgment that leads to an immediate exit.