From a 15x surge to a 40% plunge, ZEC development stagnation exposes the fatal flaw of altcoins

ZEC experienced a rollercoaster in just two months: from late September 2025 to mid-November, its market cap increased by about 15 times, but then the price retraced 40%, and development activity dropped to its lowest level since November 2021. This warning from Santiment reveals a harsh market rule—price increases without sustained innovation support will ultimately lead to false prosperity.

From Boom to Bust: ZEC’s Divergence Signal

Price and Fundamentals Divergence

ZEC’s trend exhibits typical “disconnection between real and fake” characteristics. According to data, ZEC’s current price is $429.89, but this has significantly fallen from its peak. More concerning are three dimensions of decline:

• Short-term decline expanding: down 9.65% in 24 hours, down 18.61% over 7 days, indicating increasing downward momentum
• Limited market cap: currently only $708 million, ranked 17th in the crypto market, contrasting with its short-term popularity
• Unstable trading activity: 24-hour trading volume increased by 136.16% week-over-week, but the absolute scale is only $151 million, indicating participants are withdrawing

The sharp decline in development activity is the core issue

Santiment’s key warning points to a deeper problem: development activity has fallen to its lowest level since November 2021. This is not just data deterioration but a signal of the project’s vitality.

According to related information, in the GitHub activity ranking for RWA (Real World Asset) projects, Hedera (HBAR) rose to first place, which precisely indicates that ongoing development efforts are driving the project’s market performance. In contrast, ZEC’s development activity has plummeted sharply.

Lessons from Historical Patterns: Development Activity Determines Life and Death

Santiment’s analysis presents a crucial point: an increase in development activity often helps outstanding altcoins stand out, while stagnation leads to failure. This is not speculation but a summary based on years of market observation.

Why is development activity so critical?

• Represents project team’s commitment: continuous development indicates the team is genuinely advancing the project, not just relying on hype
• Reflects technological competitiveness: in the privacy coin sector, technological updates and security audits are essential; stagnation means being eliminated
• Affects long-term valuation: the market will eventually realize that price increases without fundamentals will revert to rationality

Specific risks facing ZEC

As a privacy coin launched in 2016, ZEC was once an industry flagship. But today, with increasing competition in the privacy coin sector, stagnation in development means:

• Inability to meet new privacy demands and technical challenges
• Falling behind competitors in ecosystem development
• Market share may continue to erode

Investor Takeaways

This wave of ZEC’s price action offers a clear case study:

1. Beware of price bubbles: short-term surges are often driven by emotion, not fundamentals. A 15-fold increase already contains significant risk premiums
2. Focus on development indicators: GitHub activity, code update frequency, security audits—fundamental metrics—are better predictors of project future than price trends
3. Recognize the cost of false prosperity: when prices rise while fundamentals deteriorate, it often means chips are shifting from retail to big funds, and retail investors will ultimately pay for this “prosperity”

Summary

The story of ZEC soaring 15 times and then dropping 40% is essentially a textbook case of market disconnection. The simultaneous occurrence of price overvaluation and development decline exposes the most fatal weakness of altcoins—the lack of continuous technological innovation and project advancement.

Santiment’s warning is a reminder for all investors: in the crypto market, development activity is the true indicator of a project’s survival. Projects driven solely by hype and lacking fundamentals will ultimately return to reality. For established projects like ZEC, reigniting development activity and regaining market trust are the only ways to reverse the situation.