$XAU enters the Year of the Fire Horse 2026, a market cycle that only occurs once every 60 years. High volatility, high turnover, high emotions—this is the underlying tone of this year. As the ultimate safe-haven asset, gold's value becomes even clearer amid chaos.

But right at the start of the new year, a tough battle has emerged. The Bloomberg Commodity Index annual rebalancing is coming, scheduled from January 8 to 14. Gold's weight will be cut from 19.4% directly down to 14.9%. This move will trigger approximately $6 billion in selling pressure, nearly accounting for 3% of the total market holdings. Although the COMEX gold futures market is large enough to absorb this $6 billion sell-off, the gradual selling over seven days means the selling pressure won't be released in just one or two days. Repeated friction is the most annoying.

What’s even more troublesome is silver, with $5 billion being dumped, accounting for 9%-13% of its total holdings, directly squeezing liquidity. The gold-silver correlation works like this: once silver crashes, the sentiment will spread, and margin mechanisms will tighten accordingly, easily dragging gold into the synchronized downward spiral.

On January 9, the non-farm payroll data coincides with the rebalancing window, where macro fundamentals clash with mechanical capital flows. The core of this week’s trading is all about rhythm—being able to seize the right timing for ups and downs, while missing it leaves you passive everywhere.

What’s the smartest strategy? Don’t confront the selling wave on the US market head-on; instead, lurk at low liquidity points and wait. When passive funds dump cheap chips, absorb them, then transfer them to physical buyers during the Asian trading session. This is called the midnight ambush.