Today at 21:30, the December 2025 Non-Farm Payrolls report will be released, one of the most closely watched macroeconomic indicators at the start of 2026. The report includes key metrics such as changes in non-farm employment, unemployment rate, and wage growth, which will directly influence market expectations of Federal Reserve monetary policy and the outlook for a soft landing of the US economy. Currently, the US labor market shows clear signs of cooling, and combined with weaker-than-expected ADP "small non-farm" employment data, this report may further reinforce signals of economic slowdown.

Looking back at the previous data, in November, employment increased by 64,000, while in October, it decreased by 105,000. The November unemployment rate was 4.6%, higher than September's 4.4%, reaching the highest level since 2021. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics had to abandon releasing the October unemployment rate because it could not trace the data after the government shutdown. The decline in employment in October was the largest since the end of 2020, caused by workers officially exiting the employment list due to participation in the Trump administration's buyout resignation plan, with federal employment decreasing by 162,000.

Market expectations for December non-farm employment are an increase of 60,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate expected to slightly decline to 4.5% or lower, mainly due to technical factors such as federal employees returning to work. If the employment report shows signs of a slowdown in the labor market but no rupture, the Federal Reserve is likely to hold steady at the January meeting, as the threshold for further rate cuts has increased after the December cut, with an 88.4% probability of keeping rates unchanged in January.

Given Powell's statement at the December FOMC meeting that official data may be overstated by about 60,000 jobs per month, the biggest focus this time is not the number but the unemployment rate. If the December unemployment rate remains at 4.6% or higher (not falling below 4.5%), it will trigger the Sam rule, signaling a recession. This could trigger market panic, increase stock market volatility, but if the unemployment rate falls below 4.5%, it can avoid this trigger and boost market confidence.