#比特币市场表现 Once again, we see signals of hash rate decline. During the 2014 bear market, I also experienced the scene of miners collectively shutting down—at that time, the entire market was filled with despair, and miners were incurring heavy losses, turning off their mining rigs one after another. Many thought that was the end of the world, but in fact, it was a lesson that history repeatedly teaches us.

VanEck's latest data once again confirms this pattern: in the past 30 days, a 4% decrease in hash rate corresponds to a 65% probability of positive returns over the next 90 days. It doesn't seem particularly high, but if you extend the timeline to 180 days, the data becomes very convincing—during periods of continuous hash rate decline, Bitcoin's probability of rising reaches 77%, with an average increase of 72%. In comparison, during periods of hash rate growth, the success rate is only 61%, and the gains are generally weaker.

This is not a coincidence. What is the essence of miners surrendering? It is the transfer of pricing power. When mining costs are laid out, and miners still insist on shutting down, it indicates that it has become difficult to continue. Once this last selling force diminishes, the selling pressure in the market also weakens. Every such turning point in history has become a springboard for rebounds.

Of course, this is just probabilistic statistics, not certainty. But I have seen many moments where the market speaks through data, and this time the signal quality is quite good. The bottom may not arrive immediately, but miners' choices are often more honest than any commentary.