Based on the latest CME Federal Funds Futures data, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts have shown a clear divergence.

**The probability of a rate cut in January is very low.** According to the data, the Fed has an 86.2% chance of holding rates steady this month, with only a 13.8% chance of cutting rates by 25 basis points. This indicates that the market does not expect any action in January.

**However, things start to change by March.** The probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 38.0%, although the majority still expect rates to remain unchanged at 57.4%. But the possibility of a rate cut cannot be completely ruled out. Additionally, there is a 4.6% chance of consecutive rate cuts, totaling a 50 basis point reduction—this probability is not high, but it also reflects some market concerns about future economic data.

For holders of cryptocurrencies, this data is very important. The Federal Reserve's policy direction often determines capital flows, and a rate cut cycle typically increases the attractiveness of risk assets. Currently, market expectations are for a wait-and-see approach in the short term, but with room for rate cuts in the medium term—meaning we may face a period of anticipation.