Good morning, traders. Today is Non-Farm Payrolls release day, but from a sentiment perspective, the rebound should still favor a shorting approach.

Looking back at yesterday’s market, the initial decline followed by a rally was clearly influenced by significant market news. Federal Reserve officials have been signaling that there may be about 150 basis points of rate cuts by 2026. Meanwhile, the official has finalized the candidate for the next Fed Chair and is urging the Fed to further ease policy. Driven by these signals, Bitcoin, which had been weak, rebounded sharply from 89,200 to around 91,400, before closing amid volatility. Overall, the trend remains a weak oscillation pattern.

Today’s focus is on three key Non-Farm Payrolls data points: job creation, unemployment rate, and year-over-year hourly wages. Last period’s unemployment rate was 4.6%, with market expectations of about 55,000 new jobs this period, and the unemployment rate expected to stay between 4.6% and 4.7%. What does this data mean? If the unemployment rate breaks above 4.7% or job creation is significantly below expectations, it will signal economic pressure, and the market’s rate cut expectations for January will rise sharply. Conversely, if employment data meets or exceeds expectations and the unemployment rate falls, the market’s rate cut pricing will be less aggressive, and the probability of holding rates steady will increase.

Based on the previous guidance from ADP’s small non-farm report and the current market sentiment, I personally expect this data not to cause a major shock. As long as job growth stays between 50,000 and 65,000 and the unemployment rate remains between 4.4% and 4.6%, large volatility is unlikely. The rate cut expectations may not see a clear directional push from this data. Instead, the market is more likely to show a sideways downward trend, while remaining cautious of potential surprises from data revisions.

Looking at this week’s rhythm, from the high of 94,600 to the low of 89,200, most of the price movement has already played out before the data release. Therefore, subsequent fluctuations are unlikely to be extreme. I still lean towards maintaining a short position. Interestingly, the more officials talk about rate cuts, the more the market tends to trigger a contrarian psychology—that’s the current market mindset.

Bitcoin trading suggestion: continue to short around 91,500-92,000, targeting the 89,600-87,800 zone. Consider reversing to long once in position. For Ethereum, follow the same approach, with key resistance at 3,160. As for gold, the logic of “rebound without a break is a setup for a decline” still applies; 4,480 remains a good entry point for short positions, treating the market within a consolidation range.

That’s all for now. Wishing everyone successful trading!