#比特币价格预测与分析 Recently, I came across analyses about the decline in mining activities and I’d like to discuss the underlying logic with everyone. VanEck’s data shows that when Bitcoin network hash rate decreases, the probability of achieving positive returns within 90 days reaches 65%. This historical pattern deserves our serious attention.

What does this reflect? When weaker miners exit under financial pressure, the participant structure in the market is actually optimizing — those who remain are more resilient and have a longer-term outlook. From a certain perspective, this is a self-regulating process of the market.

However, I must be honest. Recently, I’ve seen some extreme predictions — such as doubling in 60 days — and I remain cautious. Predictions that later converge to “at least a 10% rebound” are actually more worth considering. The market is full of uncertainties, and we should be wary of any absolute judgments.

If you’re thinking about allocation, my advice is: don’t let short-term forecasts skew your rhythm. True safety comes from reasonable position management and a long-term mindset — exercise restraint when seeing positive signals, avoid over-leveraging; at the same time, understand that market declines are often good opportunities to reassess your holdings.

The key is to ask yourself: Does my allocation truly match my risk tolerance? In the long run, stability always beats excitement.