Whale 24-hour reversal: From closing short positions to 3x long on 20,000 ETH, what are they betting on?

Smart Money pension-usdt.eth’s strategy experienced a 180-degree turn within 24 hours. On January 8th, they just closed a 3x leveraged ETH short position with a profit of $2.75 million, and on January 9th, they immediately opened a larger 3x leveraged ETH long position. What market judgment is reflected behind this rapid reversal?

The Aggressive Reversal by the Whale

According to OnchainLens monitoring, the details of this long position are as follows:

This position has several noteworthy features:

• Scale Upgrade: Transitioning from closing a short to opening a larger long position, holding 20,000 ETH on-chain, which is among the top levels among whales
• Leverage Maintained: Still using 3x leverage, indicating this whale has its own risk control preferences
• Margin of Safety: The liquidation price of $1,607.9 has enough buffer from the current price, with about 48% downside space

Market Signals Behind the Move

This reversal is not an isolated event. Observing pension-usdt.eth’s recent trading trajectory:

• January 8th: Closed a 3x leveraged ETH short, locking in $2.75 million profit, with total profit reaching $22.3 million
• January 9th: Immediately switched to a 3x leveraged long position of 20,000 ETH

The rapid shift from short to long often indicates two possibilities: one, a clear change in market sentiment; two, smart money has a new judgment on short-term trends.

From a macro perspective, institutional buying continues to support this optimistic sentiment. BlackRock recently withdrew large amounts of BTC and ETH from Coinbase, and Bitmine has been staking大量 ETH, all indicating institutional confidence in ETH’s medium-term outlook.

Risk and Reward Trade-off

This position is characterized by high risk and high reward:

• Potential Gains: Based on an entry price of $3,097.74, if ETH rises to $3,500, this position could profit around $24 million
• Risks: 3x leverage means any significant decline can quickly wipe out profits; the liquidation price of $1,607.9, while providing buffer, would result in total loss if triggered

With a current unrealized profit of $235,000, this position is slightly profitable at the current price, giving the whale some operational flexibility.

Key Factors for Future Direction

The performance of this long position will depend on several factors:

• Short-term Price Trend: ETH has fallen 1.73% in the past 24 hours but risen 3.45% over 7 days; the overall trend needs further observation
• Market Liquidity: A position size of $62.2 million means any liquidity shocks could quickly push prices up or down
• Macro Environment: Whether the ongoing institutional buying trend can be sustained, which will determine the fundamental support for the long position

Summary

pension-usdt.eth’s reversal reflects smart money’s optimistic judgment on ETH’s short-term trend. Moving from closing a short to opening a larger long position is a rapid shift that typically occurs only when market sentiment or fundamentals change significantly. The 3x leverage and $62.2 million position size demonstrate this whale’s risk appetite and confidence in its judgment.

However, the double-edged nature of leveraged trading also means that any adverse volatility will be amplified. From on-chain data, this move warrants ongoing attention, as smart money’s next actions often preempt market turning points.