Recently, you have probably been bothered by these questions: Has the bear market really arrived? Is the bull market already coming to an end? Why do I get crushed every time I chase highs? Why do I get trapped every time I follow the trend?

These doubts sound very frustrating, but they actually reflect an important signal—the market is going through a phase of extreme divergence.

My straightforward judgment is: we are not in a bear market, nor are we at the end of a bull market, but rather in a **mid-term deep correction of the bull market**.

Why not a bear market? Look at what a real bear market looks like:

Bitcoin will stay below the 200-day moving average for a long time. Spot ETFs will continue to see net outflows. Miners and institutions will cut positions simultaneously. The macro environment will tighten, liquidity will be drained. The market will experience continuous crashes with no decent rebounds.

Now? It’s completely the opposite:

BTC is still operating within a long-term upward channel. Spot ETFs are still experiencing structural net inflows. Large funds are not panicking and withdrawing; instead, they are clearly accumulating after each dip. That’s the difference—during a bear market, no one is willing to take over; now, some are, just not letting you comfortably get on board.

Could this be the end of a bull market? That’s also not right.

You definitely recognize what the end of a bull market looks like: everyone going all-in, trash coins flooding the market, beginners making money with their eyes closed, emotions at an all-time high, and people chatting about certain coins doubling or tripling in value while walking on the street.

What is the current market sentiment? Restless, repetitive, uneasy. It gets pushed down as soon as it rises, and chasing in gets you trapped. This is a typical period of oscillation and divergence, not the madness at the end.