Yesterday, precious metals exhibited a typical bottoming and rebound pattern. Under the suppression of the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals, gold prices briefly fell to a low of 4407.80, then quickly rebounded to close at 4477.36 due to geopolitical support and influx of buying, with a daily increase of 0.49%, indicating an initial strong trend.

Tonight at 9:30 PM, the US December non-farm payrolls data will be released, which is the most critical market driver in recent times. According to institutional forecasts, the new non-farm jobs are expected to be between 55,000 and 75,000, with mainstream views centered around 70,000 to 75,000, and the previous value revised to -105,000. Regarding the unemployment rate, expectations are between 4.5% and 4.7%, with the previous at 4.6%. Citibank leans toward 4.7%, while Goldman Sachs predicts 4.5%. The average hourly earnings month-over-month is expected to be 0.3%, with an annual rate of 3.8%-3.9%, overall indicating a cooling of wage inflation.

The story behind these data points is clear: employment recovery momentum is slowing, wage growth is moderate, and the unemployment rate remains high—this is precisely why the Federal Reserve might consider starting rate cuts in April. For precious metals, expectations of rate cuts are positive signals.

There are three possible scenarios: First, if the data exceeds expectations, the dollar will appreciate, rate cut expectations will be delayed, and precious metals will come under pressure and sharply decline. Second, if the data meets expectations, maintaining the "weak recovery + moderate inflation" framework, the April rate cut remains the main theme, and precious metals will fluctuate mildly stronger—this is the most probable scenario. Third, if the data is weaker than expected, rate cut expectations will heat up, the dollar will weaken, and precious metals will rapidly rally, which is most favorable for bulls. From my personal judgment, the possibility of the third scenario cannot be ignored.

On the technical side, precious metals are showing a high-level consolidation pattern with bulls not yet broken. Key support is around 1990; holding this level maintains the bullish structure. Breaking above resistance opens a larger upward space. The trading strategy for non-farm payroll night is: before the data, lightly test long positions; after the data, add positions according to the trend; the core is to strictly control position size and stop-loss.

In terms of operations, consider entering long positions around 4450-4440, with recent targets of 4480-4500, and an ultimate target of 4550. Remember, risk control is always the top priority. If the trend is uncertain, it’s better to stay in cash and wait.