Today, let's track BTC's trend. The short position was initiated at 94,500 and successfully reached the third target at 89,500. This wave of market movement has still provided participants with considerable gains. However, the price has stopped falling and rebounded here. Many voices in the market are starting to discuss whether the bottom has been reached, but a careful look at the chart logic shows that this rebound is actually unsustainable.

From the perspective of candlesticks and moving averages, the 89,500 level is essentially a secondary support during the previous upward movement, not a key major support. The rebound at this point is mainly driven by retail investors and short-term funds bottom-fishing, with no signs of large institutional funds positioning here. Looking at the moving average system more clearly—short-term averages are all in a bearish alignment, and the price is still below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages. During the rebound, it will face resistance from these averages, and further upward space is basically blocked.

The MACD indicator is still oscillating below the zero line. Although the bearish momentum has eased somewhat, it has not fully dissipated. The current rebound is more of a correction of the indicator rather than a trend reversal.

Looking at the macro perspective, global risk assets are currently cautious. Expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies are changing, which still puts pressure on the crypto market. The willingness of funds to enter the market is clearly insufficient. In such an environment, BTC is unlikely to shake off its weak position. Short-term rebounds may continue, but the conditions for a trend reversal are still far from being met.