I am your strategic mentor, Xiao Zhi. After a winning streak of more than ten consecutive days with high profit and loss ratios, we experienced a small loss. But trading is like this; it’s all about probabilities and risk-reward ratios.

Next, how should we plan our layout? Please carefully watch Xiao Zhi’s notes.
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#2026行情预测 #今日你看涨还是看跌？
Although yesterday’s 3105 stop-loss caused you a small loss, look at the current market—ETH did not fall at 3100 but slid as expected towards the 3000 threshold, even piercing through it at one point. If you didn’t stop-loss, the current unrealized loss and psychological pressure will completely make you lose your mind.
ETH Daily Strategic Analysis Report (2026.01.09)
Market Logic Deep Review
Structural Weakening: After breaking below 3100, ETH’s daily upward trend has entered a “resting period.” The current movement is a typical bearish inertia release.
Selling Pressure Sources: Mainly panic selling from long positions at 3200-3300, and the chain reaction triggered after the 3100 stop-loss orders were hit.
Support Testing: The price is currently repeatedly testing the “last psychological line” at 3000 - 3050. This is not only an integer level but also a large-volume rally zone at the end of last year, with very strong “magnetic support.”
Key Level Radar
Strong Support: 2980 - 3020 ( Currently the golden hunting ground ).
Bull-Bear Divide: 3120 ( Support turned resistance before, a rebound to this level will face resistance ).
Psychological Defense Line: 2950 ( Once the close drops below this, the short-term bullish logic will be completely terminated ).
Based on the real-time market at 08:00 on January 9, 2026, my core idea is very clear:
Conclusion: You should “hold cash and wait,” then “look for opportunities to go long.”
At this moment (around 3050), you should neither open a long position nor a short position directly. The reasons are as follows:
Why not open a short now? (Logic: limited space)
Poor risk-reward ratio: The price has already fallen from 3340 to 3050, a huge drop. If you short now, your stop-loss must be set above 3120 (resistance level). You risk 70 points to gain 50 points (at 3000). This is algorithmically wrong.
Emotional exhaustion: The bearish momentum has already been largely released. Opening a short now is very likely to hit a “short squeeze,” causing a sharp rebound.
Why not go long directly now? (Logic: lack of confirmation)
Inertia has not yet disappeared: After breaking below 3100, the market is still falling due to inertia. Although 3000 has support, there are no clear signs of a reversal (such as volume spikes or bottom formations).
Prevent “half-heartedly catching a falling knife”: Enter at 3050, but if the price continues to drop to 2980, your psychological pressure will cause you to cut losses before dawn.
First Option: Hunt Longs (High Win Rate Plan)
Waiting Range: 2985 - 3015
Operation: Enter when the price pierces the 3000 threshold and quickly recovers above 3010.
Logic: Use the psychological support at 3000 and the short-term “profit-taking” sell-off to play a rebound.
Stop-loss: 2945 (your dignity line).
Second Option: Trend-following Short (Alternative Plan)
Operation: If the price rebounds to 3120 but fails to stabilize.
Logic: The previous support turned resistance, a “dead cat bounce,” followed by a secondary decline.
Stop-loss: 3165.
Today’s Core Execution Strategy: Counter-attack
The specific plan is shown in the diagram below:

Forget 3105: Yesterday’s loss has been settled; it does not determine your success or failure today. If you operate just to “recover losses,” you have already lost. Your goal today is to execute a high-quality plan with a “risk-reward ratio of 1:4.”
Accept “more ugly K-lines”: The candles around 3000 will be very ugly, possibly with false quick drops. This is the market makers collecting chips. As long as your 2945 support is not broken, give the market some breathing room.
Profit and loss are your own responsibility; please refer to your own judgment.