Recently, PIPPIN experienced a wave of notable market fluctuations—liquidation of short positions reached $919,000 within 12 hours, while the token price surged by 31% during the same period. At first glance, this appears to be a good upward opportunity, but a closer look at the market details reveals some intriguing signals.

From a technical perspective, the current price remains suppressed by multiple key moving averages. The EMA7, EMA25, and EMA99 forming a bearish alignment continue to dominate the upside space, and the MACD indicator oscillates below the zero line, reflecting that the overall trend remains weak. More notably, there is a significant deviation between the mark price ( of $0.359) and the current price, indicating a considerable premium in the perpetual contract market, which often entails risks.

From this angle, the recent rally could have several possibilities: First, the main players might be accumulating positions at high levels to prepare for subsequent pressure; second, the bullish sentiment in the contract market may be overly concentrated, making it vulnerable to reverse operations; third, the price might still be in a rebound phase while seeking a bottom, rather than indicating a trend reversal.

Based on this assessment, a relatively cautious trading approach could be:

First, consider contrarian opportunities in the $0.40-$0.41 range, which represents a relatively high point; second, if the price breaks below the $0.36 support level, consider adding to positions, indicating that support has been broken; set the stop-loss above $0.425 to allow enough room to withstand the main players' probing. Following this logic, initial target levels could be around $0.34 and $0.20, two key points.

Ultimately, all trading is a game of probabilities and risk management. Rational traders should avoid chasing short-term FOMO and instead base their plans on objective technical signals. After a violent rally, markets typically face greater pullback pressure—this is a well-validated market law over years of operation.