Morning at position 3194, I reminded everyone to position for ETH. Just as I was about to go grab a meal, the message alerts exploded—looks like everyone's attention to the market is really high. Instead of rushing to stare at the screen, it's better to understand the logic behind the trend thoroughly. This way, even if you're not watching the market 24/7, you can still seize the core opportunities. In the crypto market, you need to keep the rhythm in check and also protect your principal.

My core judgment is: ETH is still in a consolidation phase, lacking clear reversal signals. Any trading strategy should revolve around "short-term rebound arbitrage." Never get tempted to chase highs during short-term volatility; risk management must come first. The following positions and logic are summarized from multiple days of market observation—remember, this is much more useful than blind trading.

**The watershed role of the 60-day moving average resistance level**

Pay close attention to the 60-day moving average above 3246—this line is currently the key to judging the short-term trend direction. My view is that if the price approaches this area but cannot break through, it can serve as our dynamic defense upper limit. If it continues downward or oscillates around this level, as long as it hasn't stabilized above the 60-day moving average, you can gradually reduce your position. Conversely, once a valid breakout occurs, you can track the 3280-3295 range, but there will definitely be selling pressure near the previous high. Setting your defense below the previous high is more prudent to avoid being shaken out.

**Support logic at around 3195 below**

The area around 3195 is currently an important support level. If the price retraces here but does not break below further, and instead shows signs of stabilizing—such as forming a small bullish candle recovering some losses—then you might consider a small position to test the rebound opportunity. But don’t set your target too aggressively; it’s better to first watch the 3220-3246 range, which will give a more stable win rate.