If this is a short squeeze market, it appears to be overly “healthy.”

From a data structure perspective, the current six consecutive days of BTC price increases seem more like a gradual capital push rather than a typical short squeeze. Short squeezes usually have three characteristics: rapid increase in funding rates, a surge in contract positions, and prices diverging from trading volume support in a short period. However, the current situation is quite the opposite—funding rates remain moderate, spot trading volume share is rising, and leverage has not become the dominant force.

More importantly, there is continuous inflow of ETF funds. Over the past five days, net inflows exceeded $3 billion, indicating that buying is not driven by emotional impulse but rather by medium- to long-term allocation. Institutional funds typically do not chase short squeeze structures but focus more on liquidity, safety margins, and trend continuation.

On-chain long-term holders have not shown obvious chip distribution, which also weakens the possibility of a “terminal rally.” True short squeeze markets are usually accompanied by loosening of old chips and a quick pullback after price peaks. Currently, the situation more resembles a “locked position + new capital absorption” structure.

Therefore, I am more inclined to interpret the current market as the early stage of the main bull phase, rather than a short-lived short squeeze. #我的2026第一条帖