Trump's Customs Tariff Decision: Bad News or Just a Market Sentiment Test?

Recent days, the finance and crypto communities have been buzzing with news that the US Supreme Court may rule that Trump-era tariffs are illegal, with the probability mentioned reaching up to 78%. Immediately, a series of articles, KOLs, and sensational headlines began warning of a “market collapse” scenario. But if you look at the market long enough, you’ll understand: the more noisy the news, the more you need to calmly analyze the actual data. The News Sounds Very Heavy, But Does the Market Believe It? Indeed, if this ruling occurs, theoretically, it could trigger expectations of a large-scale tax refund, with the maximum figure mentioned around $6 trillion. However, it’s important to emphasize: This is the highest-case scenario, not a certain figureMany US financial experts have doubted the exaggeration of this numberThis shows that the market is not “swallowing” the story whole, but is analyzing, debating, and gradually discounting the risk In other words: fear has already been priced in part, not that no one is prepared. On-Chain Data Says What? Is “Smart Money” Really Running Away? If it’s truly a systemic risk, the first thing we would see is large capital flowing out of the market. But what does the reality look like? The amount of coins on exchanges has hardly changed significantlyThere are no signs of panic withdrawals from large walletsThe long/short ratio in derivatives remains balanced, with no extreme movements This indicates a very important point: 👉 “Smart money” has not run away at all. In fact, they are probably just waiting for the right moment. History Repeats Itself: Bad News Usually Means Drop, Good News Means Rise? In many major macro events before, the market often follows a familiar pattern: Rumors appear → prices drop firstPanic spreadsOfficial news is announcedPrices do not fall further, sometimes even rebound (sell the rumor, buy the news) Tom Lee calls this an inverse signal (contrarian signal) – when the majority is overly fearful, the market tends to do the opposite. With crypto, this happens even more frequently because: Low liquidityStrong herd mentalitySmall investors are easily led by headlines Most Rational Scenario: Fluctuations First, Opportunities Later From a practical perspective, the most probable scenario is: Before the ruling: The market continues to fluctuate, shake out weak hands, even “shake off” to eliminate weak positionsWhen the official result is announced: Regardless of the ruling’s direction, strong volatility will create opportunitiesIf prices drop sharply but do not break key support → buy graduallyIf the news comes out and prices do not fall, even rebound → a sign of strong internal strength Strategy for Traders: Don’t Guess the News, Manage Capital In such phases, what matters is not predicting the outcome correctly, but: Maintaining a reasonable position sizeAlways having reserve cashPre-defining support zones – action zonesMonitoring on-chain flows, not emotions on social media Conclusion: News Is Just the Spark, New Money Decides the Fire Headlines can scare you, but the market does not operate on emotions, but on flows. 👉 News is the spark 👉 On-chain data is the fuel If the fuel is not exhausted, the fire cannot be extinguished. Stay disciplined, manage risks well, and let the market reveal its intentions. Volatility is not the enemy – it’s the stage for traders to demonstrate their resilience.