#数字资产行情上升 U.S. employment data is out, and the crypto world is about to face a test

Tonight, Beijing time, two key data releases will come one after another——at 21:15, December ADP employment change (small non-farm), and at 23:00, November JOLTS job openings. These two indicators can reveal the Federal Reserve's true intentions in advance, and their impact chain on the crypto market is direct and clear.

Remember the mess of November? ADP surprisingly shrank by 32,000, crushing market expectations. Currently, major institutions are betting on a rebound in December, expecting an increase of 47,000 jobs. But there’s a hidden risk—if the actual data shows negative growth again or an increase of less than 30,000, it will significantly boost the story of "the Fed continuing to cut rates."

If JOLTS also performs poorly, with a sharp decline in job openings, it will be a double signal, and the market will likely incorporate expectations of easing monetary policy by 2026. The result could be that main cryptocurrencies like $BTC and $ETH may receive short-term policy support.

Conversely, if the data is strong, risk assets might be pressured downward, and the crypto market could face negative news. It’s important to note that currently, the correlation between crypto assets and the stock market is somewhat distorted—when stocks fall, crypto may fall even more, so risk prevention should not be relaxed.