The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut trajectory has always been an important variable influencing the crypto market. Recently, statements from senior Fed officials have once again sparked market attention.

Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari recently admitted in an interview that U.S. inflation is gradually declining, but the unemployment rate faces a risk of "sudden increase." These comments hit the current market's pain points.

His core concerns are twofold: first, the stickiness of inflation. He pointed out that the impact of tariff policies takes years to fully transmit to the economic system, which means short-term inflation could fluctuate repeatedly; second, the unemployment rate may start rising rapidly, directly impacting market sentiment.

Looking at the data, the U.S. unemployment rate fell from 4.6% in November to 4.5% in December, which sounds good, but Kashkari believes the actual unemployment rate should be around 4.6%. This suggests the labor market is cooling down. On the other hand, the November CPI increased by 2.7 year-over-year, which is below expectations but still far from the Fed's 2% target.

It is worth noting that the government shutdown has disrupted data collection, so the authenticity of these figures remains to be seen. The upcoming monthly non-farm payroll report from the U.S. Department of Labor may provide clearer signals to the market.

Looking back over the past year, the Fed has cut interest rates by a total of 75 basis points, and market expectations for future policy directions are constantly adjusting. Changes in Fed policy often amplify reactions in the crypto market—rate cut expectations usually push risk asset prices higher, while rate hike concerns tend to lower valuations. From this perspective, the current uncertainty—inflation not fully under control and rising unemployment risks—may cause the market to swing back and forth between policy expectations and economic data.