2026-01-06 17:20:12

Regarding the crypto market trend in 2026, some institutions have recently released new analytical perspectives. They believe that the traditional "four-year cycle" analysis framework may become invalid—at least for this year's spot market, it is no longer the main reference.

Why is that? Several new factors are redefining the rules of the game. First, demand-side changes are occurring, the macroeconomic environment is relatively favorable, and combined with ongoing policy support, these factors collectively lead to a generally optimistic outlook for 2026.

Another point worth noting is the Federal Reserve's moves. The market is digesting expectations of further easing by the Fed, which could strengthen the positive correlation between BTC and the US stock market. If you follow stock market trends, then Bitcoin's performance might also be worth monitoring.

Regarding value drivers, real-world assets (RWA) and tokenization are viewed positively, with some institutions believing these will become key growth points in 2026.

Interestingly, the options market currently prices the probability of BTC reaching $150,000 by the end of the year at only 10.3%, and some analysts feel this probability is a bit conservative. In other words, the market may not have fully priced in some potential upside.

BTC-1,16%

RWA8,08%

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SchrodingerPrivateKey

· 01-09 12:42

Is the four-year cycle coming to an end? I think it's uncertain. Every cycle, someone claims it's invalid, haha. The probability of $150,000 is only 10%. If it's really that conservative, institutions would have already invested heavily. It shows that everyone still lacks confidence. RWA (Real-World Assets) has indeed gained popularity, but whether it can become a breakout point in 2026 still depends on policy developments. The Federal Reserve's easing expectations are causing BTC to correlate positively with the US stock market... which means the crypto market is still dominated by the "working class," and the discourse power remains in the hands of Americans.

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ForkLibertarian

· 01-09 08:03

Four-year cycle invalid? To put it nicely, it’s just that no one can predict it correctly, haha. $150,000 is only 10.3%? Laughing out loud, those guys in the options market are really timid. RWA is hot, but I’m just worried it will be the next air coin hype. Federal Reserve easing + BTC positive correlation, this logic was tired of hearing last year. The spot market is mostly optimistic, but how many are actually putting real money into it?

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PumpingCroissant

· 01-08 18:25

Four-year cycle invalid? I have some doubts about this wave, it still feels like the same logic A 10% probability at 150,000, the options market is indeed too conservative Will RWA really take off? It still feels more like a concept than reality The Federal Reserve's easing is just giving BTC a blood transfusion, this logic makes sense Cycle saying it's invalid, and now a new story emerges, a new reason to cut leeks? I'm optimistic about 2026, but it's awkward for me who doesn't hold any coins Conservative options pricing—what does it mean? There might really be a black swan event

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TokenEconomist

· 01-06 17:50

actually, the market's pricing mechanism here reveals a fascinating misalignment between options traders and spot market sentiment. think of it this way—if macro conditions are truly this favorable, why haven't option prices converged toward that optimism yet?

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SerumSqueezer

· 01-06 17:49

Four-year cycle invalid? Come on, history always repeats itself, just in a different shell. A 10% chance at $150,000? I bet these options traders are still too conservative. The RWA part is indeed imaginative, but can tokenization really be implemented... skeptical. The Federal Reserve's easing expectations directly boost BTC, this logic makes sense, following macro trends is quite profitable. The cycle theory is not dead; it's just that there are too many variables now, so it's hard to say.

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UnluckyMiner

· 01-06 17:48

Four-year cycle invalid? So should I also change my coin accumulation strategy over these past few years... Can RWA really become a breakout point? It feels like everyone is just hyping it, but who knows 15% probability for 100,000? I feel like these institutions are deliberately lowballing expectations When the Federal Reserve loosens, BTC follows along—this correlation is just too strong But being policy-friendly is definitely true; there's no denying that

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SignatureAnxiety

· 01-06 17:41

Four-year cycle invalid? Honestly, I don't believe it. It feels like the institutions are just marketing a new concept. A $150,000 valuation with only a 10.3% probability? I don't think it's conservative; I think it's fear. The RWA part does have potential, but can it really drive this bull market? The Federal Reserve's easing expectations strengthen the positive correlation between BTC and the US stock market—that logic is backwards... Wait, what exactly is the change on the demand side? It feels like they're talking about something虚的 (vague or empty). I've heard this set of rhetoric from institutions year after year. Suddenly, in 2026, it will be different? That's nonsense.

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Ramen_Until_Rich

· 01-06 17:38

Is the four-year cycle going to be gone? Laughing out loud, this way of thinking should have been changed a long time ago --- RWA hot? That depends on whether the real projects can be implemented, don’t let it be just hype --- $150,000 only 10.3%? Bro, are you joking with me --- When the Federal Reserve loosens its grip, the crypto market follows high, the correlation is really incredible --- Sounds good, but isn’t it just waiting for the next hot trend to take over --- Those who believe in this analysis are probably all new investors, right? --- Changes on the demand side? I feel like it’s still those institutions manipulating the market --- Tokenization is a good direction, but you need to pick the right projects, otherwise it’s just a waste of time --- Conservative pricing in the options market? Then I’ll just short it --- Holding onto the 2026 pie is not as good as acting now, those who wait always lose money

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GetRichLeek

· 01-06 17:24

Four-year cycle invalid? Bro, I've heard that line too many times. Every time it's the same story, and yet we still get hammered. A 10.3% probability in the options market... This is basically insulting our intelligence. It's obvious that there's no pricing yet, and this is a clear signal to bottom fish, brother. RWA is indeed interesting, but I’m already numb from FOMO. Chasing higher now would really be asking to get cut.

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FUD_Whisperer

· 01-06 17:23

Four-year cycle invalid? Ha, here comes a new theory again. Do you believe it this time? Only a 10% chance with 150,000... The options market is really timid. The RWA part is indeed interesting, but the hype is faster than the action. The Federal Reserve is stirring things up again. BTC being tied to the US stocks is truly annoying. Is this cycle a true restructuring or just another story being told?

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