The three major U.S. stock indices rose together, with the S&P 500 hitting a new high. The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index weakened for the fifth time, drawing attention.

Economic Data Surpasses Expectations, Market Shows Diverging Signals

The US third-quarter GDP preliminary annualized growth rate reached 4.3%, far exceeding market expectations of 3.2% to 3.3%, marking the fastest pace in nearly two years. This impressive GDP report has boosted global investor sentiment, with US stocks continuing their upward trend. The S&P 500 index even hit a new closing high, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.16%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.57%. However, underlying economic data reveal concerning signals.

The US Consumer Confidence Index released in December showed a fifth consecutive month of decline, dropping from 93 last month to 89.1, well below economists’ forecast of 91. The data, published by the Conference Board, reflects growing pessimism about future economic prospects. The Conference Board also noted that the current conditions index plummeted by 9.5 points to 116.8, the lowest in over three years, indicating extremely negative assessments of current business conditions and the employment market.

Consumer Concerns Worsen, Expectations Hit New Low

The decline in the US Consumer Confidence Index reflects multiple concerns. Worries about employment prospects and personal income are intensifying, along with rising fears over inflation, tariffs, and trade policies. The expectations index has been below 80 for 11 consecutive months, signaling potential recession risks. The Conference Board observed that consumers are shifting toward affordable entertainment and essential services, with continued weakening in vacation and travel plans, and more cautious purchasing of large durable goods, especially new cars.

Despite GDP growth of 1.5% attributed to Trump’s tariff policies reducing the trade deficit, the weakening of the consumer confidence index suggests that while these policies have stimulated the economy, they have also deepened public uncertainty about the future. White House National Economic Council Director Brian Deese stated that the Federal Reserve is lagging behind global rate cuts; despite Q3 economic growth exceeding expectations, the pace of rate cuts needs to accelerate.

Mixed Stock Market Performance, Tech Stocks Lead

US stock indices all rose, but with notable divergence in gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged higher, the S&P 500 hit a new closing high, and the Nasdaq saw the largest increase. Major tech stocks performed strongly, with Nvidia rising 3.01% to its highest level since mid-November, with a market cap surpassing trillion. Amazon increased by 1.6%, and Alphabet rebounded by 1.5%. In Europe, the DAX 30 index in Germany rose 0.23%, the FTSE 100 in the UK gained 0.24%, while the CAC 40 in France declined by 0.21%.

Commodity Markets Rally, Copper Hits Historic Milestone

Commodity markets surged across the board. LME copper futures broke through $12,000 per ton for the first time in history, reaching this key milestone. Copper-related stocks also gained, with Freeport-McMoRan up 2.49% and Ero Copper up 2.01%. Gold prices increased by 0.9% to $4,483.9 per ounce, setting another record high. WTI crude oil rose for the third consecutive trading day, reclaiming the $58.0 per barrel level, closing at $57.47. The US 10-year Treasury yield remained steady at approximately 4.16%.

Dollar Weakens, Forex Markets Experience Increased Volatility

The US dollar index fell 0.37% to 97.88, breaking below the 98.0 level and hitting a two-and-a-half-month low. USD/JPY declined 0.51%, reflecting the market digesting the Bank of Japan’s recent rate hike to 0.75%. EUR/USD rose 0.27%, with market sentiment turning more optimistic about the eurozone currency. Japan’s former BOJ official Masashi Adachi stated that despite narrowing US-Japan interest rate differentials, the yen’s continued depreciation indicates that policy factors are less influential, and instead, investors are demanding higher premiums for Japan’s fiscal risks.

Cryptocurrency Market Adjusts, Prices Slightly Retreat

Bitcoin declined 1.27% over 24 hours, currently trading at $93.67K, continuing recent volatility. Ethereum fell 1.4% to $3.27K. Hong Kong Hang Seng Index futures closed at 25,818 points, up 44 points from yesterday’s close. The China A-shares index futures closed at 8,927 points.

Policy Uncertainty Rises, Fed Faces Multiple Pressures

Trump stated that anyone opposing his views on monetary policy would be excluded from the Federal Reserve chair position. He emphasized that he hopes the new Fed chair will cut rates proactively when markets perform well, rather than raising rates when economic data improve. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen suggested changing the Fed’s 2% inflation target to a range, such as 1.5%–2.5% or 1%–3%, arguing that precise targets are too rigid. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 10, the third rate cut this year, but signaled that future rate cuts will slow down.

International Trade Policy Uncertainty, Semiconductor Sector Focus

The US Trade Representative’s Office announced that Chinese semiconductor products will face tariffs starting June 23, 2027, initially at 0%, with subsequent increases to be announced. The Bank of Canada’s meeting minutes showed uncertainty among officials about whether to cut or raise rates at the next policy meeting, and highlighted the review of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement as a major risk.

Overall, the continued weakening of consumer confidence contrasts sharply with the strong GDP figures, suggesting a widening gap between economic growth and public perception, which will pose complex challenges for the Fed’s future policy decisions.