The trajectory of long-term interest rates isn't mysterious—it boils down to one straightforward dynamic: the supply-demand mechanics of U.S. Treasuries. When you look under the hood, rising budget deficits are pumping more Treasury issuance into the market. That increased supply is a major force reshaping the rate landscape. More bonds hitting the market means prices soften, and yields climb. It's simple market mechanics, but the implications ripple across asset classes. For those watching global capital flows and risk appetite, this shift in Treasury dynamics matters more than most realize. The competition for yield intensifies, positioning dynamics shift, and markets recalibrate.