2026 Market Roadmap: Will commodities, crypto, and FX reshape the year? Here's what Wall Street is betting on

After 2025’s rollercoaster ride across markets, institutions are already positioning their outlooks for 2026. The consensus? Some asset classes are poised for fireworks, while others face headwinds. Here’s the breakdown of what leading banks and research firms are pricing in.

The Commodity Super-Cycle Isn’t Over Yet

Gold’s Renaissance Continues

Gold had an exceptional 2025, posting a 60% annual gain — the best performance since 1979. The World Gold Council believes the tailwinds aren’t done. With the Fed expected to cut rates further, geopolitical tensions simmering, and central banks continuing their buying spree, gold could climb another 5–15% through 2026. In a more aggressive scenario featuring global economic slowdown and aggressive monetary easing, the yellow metal could see a 15–30% rally.

Major banks are singing the same tune. Goldman Sachs targets USD 4,900/oz by end-2026, underpinned by sustained central bank demand and ETF inflows. Bank of America is even more bullish, projecting USD 5,000/oz, citing persistent U.S. fiscal deficits and ballooning debt servicing costs as structural support factors.

Silver’s Supply Crisis Creates Opportunity

While gold stole headlines, silver has been the outperformer — and for good reason. The Silver Institute flags a persistent structural supply shortage in the global market, driven by robust industrial demand, reviving investment interest, and slowing mine production. This imbalance is expected to widen in 2026.

UBS raised its 2026 target to USD 58–60/oz, with upside potential to USD 65/oz. Bank of America aligns, also projecting USD 65/oz. The compression in the gold-silver ratio throughout 2025 is signaling more repricing ahead.

Oil Faces Headwinds

Crude oil tells a different story. After plummeting nearly 20% in 2025 due to OPEC+ output recovery and surging U.S. production, institutions see downside risks in 2026. Goldman Sachs sketches a bearish scenario with WTI averaging around USD 52/barrel and Brent near USD 56/barrel. JPMorgan similarly flags downside, with WTI potentially hovering near USD 54/barrel, contingent on sustained oversupply conditions and moderating global demand.

Crypto: The Debate Over Cycle Dynamics

Bitcoin’s Price Target: Reality Check

Bitcoin hit a historical peak in 2025 before retreating, finishing nearly flat for the year. Currently trading around $93.71K, institutions remain divided on its 2026 trajectory.

Standard Chartered walked back its bullish USD 200,000 call, revising down to USD 150,000, citing waning government cryptocurrency treasury purchases despite sustained ETF inflows. Bernstein echoes this USD 150,000 target for 2026, though it projects a more explosive USD 200,000 by 2027. Bernstein’s thesis: Bitcoin has broken its four-year cycle and entered an elongated bull phase.

Morgan Stanley dissents sharply, arguing the four-year cycle remains intact and the bull market is approaching its terminal phase. This divergence underscores ongoing institutional uncertainty.

Ethereum’s Tokenization Play

Ethereum’s 2025 was rockier than Bitcoin’s, also ending near breakeven. Currently priced around $3.23K, the narrative around ETH in 2026 centers on tokenization’s massive potential.

JPMorgan highlights how tokenization — the digitization of real-world assets on blockchain — could reshape capital markets, with Ethereum’s infrastructure at the epicenter. Tom Lee, BitMain Chairman, goes further, forecasting ETH at USD 20,000 by end-2026, asserting that 2025 marked the bottom and a significant rally is imminent. This vision ties Ethereum’s upside to a broader crypto supercycle narrative.

Equities: AI Spending Keeps the Momentum Going

The Nasdaq 100 surged 22% in 2025, outpacing the S&P 500’s 18% gain and marking three straight years of gains. Institutions expect this to persist in 2026, anchored by relentless AI infrastructure investment.

JPMorgan notes that hyperscale operators — Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta — will maintain elevated capex, potentially reaching hundreds of billions cumulatively by 2026. This should underpin chipmakers like NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom. JPMorgan sees S&P 500 potential upside toward 7,500, while Deutsche Bank sketches scenarios toward 8,000 by year-end, depending on earnings resilience. Extrapolating from these targets, the Nasdaq 100 could exceed 27,000 points in 2026.

Currency Wars: Dollar Weakness vs. Divergent BOJ Moves

EUR/USD: Can the Euro Extend Its Run?

EUR/USD posted a 13% gain in 2025 — the largest annual rally in nearly eight years — riding U.S. dollar depreciation. For 2026, institutions are split but leaning bullish.

JPMorgan and Nomura forecast EUR/USD reaching 1.20 by year-end, supported by divergent Fed easing versus ECB rate stability. Bank of America is more aggressive, targeting 1.22. However, Morgan Stanley warns of potential pressure in H2 2026, projecting a rise to 1.23 before retreating to 1.16 as U.S. macro indicators potentially strengthen.

USD/JPY: Carry Trade Unwinding Risk

USD/JPY fell roughly 1% in 2025, and outlooks for 2026 are deeply fragmented. JPMorgan and Barclays see upside to 164 by year-end, arguing that BOJ rate hike expectations are already priced in and Japanese fiscal expansion will pressure the yen.

Nomura takes the opposite stance, contending that narrowing interest rate differentials will erode yen carry trade appeal. If U.S. macro data deteriorates, unwinding positions could trigger yen strength, pushing USD/JPY to 140 before 2026 closes. This divergence highlights how sensitive currency markets remain to Fed policy pivots and cross-border rate differentials.

The Bottom Line

2026 is shaping up as a year where commodity strength, selective crypto momentum, equity resilience, and currency volatility will test investor conviction. The key variables: how aggressively the Fed cuts, whether geopolitical risks escalate, and whether AI spending justifies stretched valuations. Markets rarely move in straight lines — and 2026 will prove no exception.