2026-01-06 13:21:43

At the beginning of 2026, Bitcoin stirred the entire crypto market with a fierce rebound — soaring from $87,000 at the start of the year to over $94,000, with a short-term increase of more than 7%. Not only did it reclaim the opening price of 2025, but it also approached the critical resistance level of $95,000. However, behind this "good start" data, the persistent decline in trading volume and doubts about the capital structure remain unresolved — is this rebound truly a sign of a bull market revival, or just a fleeting false breakout?

The reasons for optimism are quite clear. On the technical side, Bitcoin is firmly above the 50-day exponential moving average, with consecutive bullish candles on the daily chart, indicating that the bulls are gaining momentum. More convincingly, on-chain activity shows that large holders holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have accumulated over 56,000 BTC since mid-December last year, suggesting that chips are consolidating among core players, gradually revealing the market bottom. Policy-wise, positive signals are also emerging — the US GENIUS stablecoin bill has been officially enacted, and the CLARITY bill is steadily progressing, providing clearer regulatory guidelines for crypto assets. Additionally, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates 2 to 3 times in 2026, presenting liquidity easing benefits that reinforce the long-term support logic. The options market also hints at this — the notional value of $100,000 call options expiring in January has doubled, indicating that some funds are still betting on further upside.

However, the warning bells for a rebound trap should also be sounded. The most critical contradiction is the disconnect between volume and price — Bitcoin's price is surging aggressively, yet spot trading volume has fallen to its lowest point since late 2023, with order books showing extremely thin liquidity. How far can this upward momentum continue without genuine buying support? This is a question worth pondering.

BTC0,04%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

16 Likes

Reward
16
9
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

MiningDisasterSurvivor

· 10h ago

I've experienced the whole set of divergence between volume and price. Back in 2018, it was the same story—technically perfect to the point of being flawless, but then a huge plunge completely proved it wrong. Institutional investors increased holdings by 56,000 coins, which sounds impressive, but the trading volume dwindled to the level at the end of 2023... Isn't this just bluffing? Without real buying pressure, no matter how strong the technicals are, it's all just a paper tiger.

View OriginalReply0

MrRightClick

· 11h ago

Divergence between price and volume, this is the real killer. I can see the big players accumulating coins, but with such low trading volume, how can we expect a real bull market? --- Another wave of false breakouts, 95,000 won't be broken easily. Just wait and see. --- Policy favorable + rate cut expectations, I buy into this logic. But when it comes to liquidity being thin, we really need to be cautious. --- 50-day moving average + consecutive bullish candles look good on paper, but the volume tells the real story. --- Big players are accumulating, what does this mean? They know something we don't. Keep watching. --- Spot volume has shrunk to this level, this isn't a rebound, it's just fishing for the little guys. --- The Fed's rate cut is good news, but with this trading volume, I'm feeling a bit uneasy. --- 56,000 BTC concentrated in the hands of big players, such high concentration makes me uneasy. --- From 9.4 to 9.5, with such little room left, do they still want to play tricks? If volume doesn't pick up, a correction is inevitable. --- Mismatch between volume and price is always a trap, and this time we can't escape it either. Be careful not to get caught.

View OriginalReply0

tx_pending_forever

· 01-06 13:51

The rebound with mismatched price and volume always feels a bit loose somewhere --- Institutional accumulation of coins is a good sign, but the trading volume is so weak, honestly, it feels a bit fake --- Both policy benefits and interest rate cut expectations, it feels like being fed chicken soup --- If 95,000 can't be broken, I’ll pretend I didn't see this rebound --- With such poor liquidity, still daring to push, this is the taste of retail investors --- Rising to 100,000 and doubling? It just feels like a new trick to trap retail investors --- Bottom appears? I only see concentrated chips, and risks are also concentrated --- The Federal Reserve's rate cut still has to wait, whether this rebound is reliable or not is really hard to say --- Spot volume has fallen to the level at the end of 2023, isn't this just influencers hyping themselves up --- Technical analysis can be misleading, on-chain data varies, but the key is still having real money involved

View OriginalReply0

ContractSurrender

· 01-06 13:47

The disconnect between volume and price really requires some caution. Are a bunch of machines just pumping it up? With such weak trading volume, daring to push higher feels like blowing bubbles... Big players are indeed accumulating, but are retail investors really buying in? It feels a bit虚虚虚 9.5K is a threshold; if it can't break through, it's time to reconsider. With such poor liquidity, a single big bearish candle could wipe it out. The stablecoin bill passing is a good thing, but this rebound itself is quite suspicious. The order book is so empty, who dares to chase the rally... It's the same story every time: good technicals, concentrated on-chain chips, favorable policies... and then what? Spot volume dropping to historic lows but still trying to push up—this isn't a rebound, it's a反演. What does increased holding by big players indicate? It shows they are accumulating at the bottom, and it has to go up later. The Fed cutting interest rates is indeed a positive, but don't ignore the technical warning signs. In a行情 with volume-price divergence, I wouldn't dare to chase.

View OriginalReply0

UncommonNPC

· 01-06 13:47

Price-volume divergence is an old trick. Every time, it’s played the same way. The promising data is always negated by trading volume. Are large investors accumulating? Maybe it’s just their last chance to absorb shares before dumping. Who can say for sure? Interest rate cuts and policy benefits sound good, but now any good news seems to trigger a rally? Come on, don’t be ridiculous. We need to break through the 95,000 level. If we can’t, we’ll just keep grinding. After all, these are the only two cards we have. Liquidity is so poor. If we really crash, it could look really ugly. Feels a bit risky.

View OriginalReply0

ThesisInvestor

· 01-06 13:46

The price has risen so much despite poor volume, honestly, it's a bit scary... Big players are indeed accumulating, but the spot trading volume dropping to a two-year low is something to think about. --- The landing of GENIUS and CLARITY is a good thing, but with such thin liquidity and such high leverage... the feeling of gambling intensifies. --- Can the key level of 95,000 hold? I think it still depends on whether the trading volume can keep up; otherwise, it's just bluffing. --- The concentration of chips is improving, and rate cuts are coming, but look at this trading volume... can it really sustain? --- The doubling of options seems impressive, but the spot liquidity is gone, which is ridiculous. --- It feels like this wave of rise is crazy; it just surged without real buying support... how many days can it last? --- Big players accumulating coins + favorable policies sound good, but the continuously declining trading volume makes it hard not to question.

View OriginalReply0

fomo_fighter

· 01-06 13:43

The trading volume is so poor and you're still hyping a rebound. Why does it feel like so many people are trapped? --- Large investors are indeed accumulating, but this rebound's momentum is too weak. I'll wait until it breaks 9.5 before considering. --- The price and volume are not aligned, a classic trap to lure buyers. Is this time really different? --- The expectation of interest rate cuts is there, but rushing so high now might be a bit too hasty. --- Honestly, relying on technical analysis can be deceiving. I trust on-chain data more, I stand by that.

View OriginalReply0

ReverseFOMOguy

· 01-06 13:41

The divergence between price and volume is so obvious, yet it still dares to push upward. This is the situation I fear the most. Trading volume has fallen to the lowest since the end of 2023, what does that mean? It means retail investors have all left, only big players are there to hype themselves up. If it doesn't break 95,000, I remain bearish. The big players increasing their holdings by 56,000 coins sounds impressive, but with such poor liquidity now, if they really want to dump, they wouldn't hesitate to run out. Instead of focusing on technical and policy aspects, it's better to keep an eye on the meager liquidity in the order book. All signs of a pull-up and escape are present. Everyone, be cautious.

View OriginalReply0

LiquidationWizard

· 01-06 13:23

The disconnect between price and volume is truly astonishing, this is the rhythm I fear the most. --- Big players are accumulating chips, but trading volume has fallen to 2023 levels... So the rise is real, but the buying pressure is fake? --- Wait, again a divergence between volume and price. It feels like this wave might just be the big players hyping themselves up. --- The Federal Reserve cutting interest rates and policy benefits sound appealing, but the real issue is the thin order book. --- What does the 95,000 barrier matter? If it can't be broken, it still has to fall. --- They said big players are increasing holdings, so why is the trading volume still so dead? Something's off. --- Seeing options double makes me want to chase, but ignoring trading volume? That's the rhythm of getting chopped up. --- The true bottom should be marked by explosive trading volume. With things like this, I can't hold on. --- Your storytelling ability is really strong—policies, big players, options all laid out, but one thing is missing—liquidity.

View OriginalReply0