Is gold expecting a bearish correction in 2026? Gold price forecasts reveal surprises

In an unexpected move, traders today are asking: Is the gold price really expecting a decline soon? Especially after the crazy rally that gold experienced throughout 2025, surpassing the $4,300 per ounce barrier in October before retreating to $4,000 in November.

The truth is, the answer isn’t as simple as it seems; gold price forecasts for 2026 depend on a complex equation of economic and geopolitical factors.

Eight Factors Controlling the Next Gold Path

1. Institutional demand still buying strongly

Gold ETFs( achieved a massive wave of buying, raising managed assets to $472 billion and increasing holdings to 3,838 tons )up 6% from the previous quarter(. This approaches a historical peak estimated at 3,929 tons, meaning: more upside is coming, not a quick decline.

On the other hand, global central banks added 244 tons during Q1 2025 alone, with 44% of central banks worldwide now managing gold reserves )compared to 37% in 2024(. China alone added over 65 tons, a clear strategic move to hedge against exchange rate volatility.

) 2. Very limited supply and rising costs

Mine production reached 856 tons in Q1 ###up only 1% annually(, and importantly: recycled gold declined by 1% as owners prefer to hold onto their pieces expecting further gains. This sharply widens the supply-demand gap.

Extraction costs rose to $1470 per ounce )highest in 10 years(, making any expansion in production slow and very expensive.

) 3. The Federal Reserve opens the door for more cuts

The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October to the 3.75-4.00% range, and markets are pricing in a third cut ###by 25 basis points( by the end of December 2025. Estimates suggest the Fed could reach 3.4% by the end of 2026 in a moderate scenario.

Every rate cut weakens the dollar and increases gold’s appeal as a safe haven.

) 4. Global monetary policy leans toward easing

The European Central Bank and Bank of Japan are moving toward further easing, which means weaker currencies and low real yields, the ideal conditions for gold.

5. Global debt exceeds 100% of GDP

This figure alone casts a shadow over investors, pushing them to seek safe havens. 42% of major hedge funds increased their gold positions in Q3 2025 seeking protection against sovereign debt risks.

6. Geopolitical tensions remain tense

Tensions in Taiwan and around the Middle East are ongoing, and geopolitical uncertainty has increased demand for gold by 7% year-over-year according to Reuters.

7. The dollar and bonds decline together

The dollar index fell by 7.64% from its peak at the start of 2025, and 10-year bond yields dropped from 4.6% to 4.07%, a deadly combo for the dollar and beneficial for gold.

8. Inflation remains high and fears persist

Despite expectations of easing inflation pressures in 2026, high government debt and trade restrictions keep economic pressure, supporting demand for safe assets.

What do experts expect for gold price in 2026?

The consensus among major banks is strong and clear:

• HSBC: expects $5000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, with an average of $4600 for the full year
• Bank of America: raised forecast to $5000 as a potential peak, with an average of $4400, but warned of a short-term correction
• Goldman Sachs: adjusted their forecast to $4900 per ounce
• J.P. Morgan: expects $5055 by mid-2026

Most agreed range: a peak between $4800 and $5000, with an average between $4200 and $4800.

But caution is needed… a downward correction may occur

HSBC warned that the upward momentum could weaken in the second half of 2026, with a possible correction toward $4200 per ounce if investors start taking profits, but they exclude a drop below $3800 unless a major economic shock occurs.

Goldman Sachs pointed out that sustained prices above $4800 could put the market to a “price credibility test” — can gold maintain these high levels?

Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank agree that gold has entered a new price zone that is hard to break downward, thanks to a permanent strategic shift in investor perception of the metal.

Gold price outlook in the Gulf countries

In Saudi Arabia and the UAE: if gold reaches $5000 per ounce ###optimistic scenario(, the price could be around 18750-19000 SAR and 18375-19000 AED per ounce, based on fixed exchange rates.

These estimates are approximate and depend on stable exchange rates and continued global demand.

Technical analysis: where is the price heading now?

Gold closed on November 21, 2025, at $4065 per ounce, after touching a peak of $4381 on October 20. The price broke the daily upward channel line but remains above the main upward trend line around $4050.

Critical levels now:

• First support: $4000 )key support(
• Second support: $3800 )50% Fibonacci retracement(
• First resistance: $4200
• Next resistance: $4400 then $4680

The RSI )Relative Strength Index( is steady at 50, indicating a neutral market with no clear bias. The MACD remains above zero, confirming the overall bullish trend.

Most likely scenario: sideways trading leaning upward between $4000 and $4220 in the near term, with the overall picture remaining positive as long as the price stays above the main trend line.

Summary: Is gold expecting a real decline?

The truth: Most experts do not expect a sharp decline in gold prices in 2026. Instead, they forecast:

1. New record levels between $4800 and $5000
2. Short-term corrections toward $4200 to take profits
3. Strong support above $3800 unless a major economic shock occurs

Supporting factors )central banks, monetary easing, global debt, institutional demand( are much stronger than potential downside factors )profit-taking, rapid economic improvement(.

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