2024 US CPI Release Taiwan Time Schedule and Annual Trend Framework

Market Focus: US CPI Release Schedule in Taiwan Time

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI), as a global asset pricing indicator, draws significant attention to its release timing. On the first business day of each month or the closest business day, the US CPI is released in Taiwan time in two slots—20:30 during daylight saving time and 21:30 during standard time.

The complete 2024 US CPI release schedule in Taiwan time is as follows:

The importance of CPI release timing in Taiwan lies in the fact that this data precedes the PCE index, which the Federal Reserve uses as a reference for policy decisions, often triggering sharp fluctuations in major asset prices.

Core Judgments on 2024 CPI Trends

We believe that in 2024, US CPI will follow a “bottom in Q1, rebound in Q2, and decline in the second half.”

This judgment is supported by a clear logical framework:

First layer—Fundamentals: Steady Economic Growth

According to the latest IMF forecasts, the US GDP growth in 2024 will reach 2.1%, ranking second among major global economies. With a resilient economy, prices are unlikely to fall rapidly to low levels.

Second layer—Interference Factors: Low Base Effect and Commodity Cycles

In the first half of 2023, major commodities mostly declined sharply, leading to a low base effect in the first half of 2024, preventing the annual CPI growth rate from continuing to accelerate downward. Meanwhile, current crude oil inventories are in a declining cycle, supporting oil prices.

Third layer—Black Swan Events: Geopolitical and Political Uncertainty

The 2024 US presidential election is approaching, and regardless of the candidate, protectionist policies may be implemented, intensifying de-globalization. Simultaneously, the Red Sea crisis continues to disrupt regional logistics, with Asia-Europe shipping rates more than doubling compared to early December 2023. These factors will ultimately transmit to consumer prices.

How to Distinguish the Three Major Inflation Indicators

Investors often confuse CPI, Core CPI, and PCE. Understanding their differences is crucial.

CPI vs Core CPI: Data Collection Scope

US CPI includes all consumption items, making it highly sensitive to food and energy price fluctuations. In contrast, Core CPI deliberately excludes these two categories, focusing on long-term trends in other goods and services. When energy prices surge or plunge, the two measures diverge the most.

CPI vs PCE: Calculation Methods

CPI uses a Laspeyres weighting method, while PCE employs a chain-weighted method. Although this difference seems technical, it has profound implications. PCE’s chain weighting better captures substitution effects—when oil prices soar, consumers switch to other energy sources, and PCE automatically reduces the weight of crude oil, smoothing out peaks and valleys.

Market vs Federal Reserve Focus

Both indicators have their roles:

• US CPI Year-over-Year Growth Rate: Released earliest, most sensitive to market reactions, often causing short-term asset price volatility.
• US PCE Year-over-Year Growth Rate: Released later but more scientifically, and is the primary reference for Fed policy.

Generally, their directions and magnitudes are highly correlated, but the Fed tends to trust PCE’s medium- and long-term signals more.

CPI Component Structure and Key Monitoring Items

US CPI is not equally weighted; the proportions of each component vary greatly:

Housing and food account for nearly 60%, making them the primary focus for CPI trend prediction.

Historical Review: Insights from a 30-Year Four-Cycle Pattern

Since the 1990s, US CPI has experienced four distinct upward-downward cycles, each associated with specific economic shocks:

First Cycle (1990–1991)
Savings and loan crisis combined with Gulf War oil shocks caused a recession, leading to a rapid decline in CPI.

Second Cycle (2000–2001)
Dot-com bubble burst and 9/11 attacks hit simultaneously, weakening economic momentum and causing prices to fall.

Third Cycle (2008–2009)
Subprime mortgage crisis froze financial systems, demand collapsed, and CPI entered a deep decline.

Fourth Cycle (2020–present)
COVID-19 caused short-term economic stagnation, CPI bottomed out; subsequent massive Fed stimulus pushed CPI to June 2022 highs; as the pandemic eased and logistics recovered, CPI has been gradually declining since late 2022.

Notably, global logistics conditions have a much greater-than-expected impact on US inflation. The Red Sea crisis at the end of 2023 reaffirmed this—Houthi attacks diverted ships, causing a surge in Asia-Europe shipping rates, with costs eventually internalized into consumer prices. Compared to the Suez Canal blockage in 2021, this impact is more gradual but persistent risks remain.

Three Key Variables Deciding 2024 CPI Trajectory

Variable 1: Federal Reserve’s Rate Cut Intensity

According to CME Group data, the market’s highest expectation is for a 6-basis-point rate cut by the Fed by the end of 2024. This reflects widespread anticipation that CPI will trend downward throughout the year, aligning with our “second half decline” view.

Variable 2: US Election Impact

Regardless of the winner, campaign promises tend to be overly optimistic. Coupled with current international tensions, candidates tend to externalize internal conflicts, further escalating geopolitical conflicts and accelerating de-globalization, ultimately raising import costs and making prices harder to decline smoothly.

Variable 3: Logistics and Supply Chain Stability

The Red Sea crisis is still evolving. If escalation occurs, regional logistics disruptions could trigger secondary shocks to global commodity prices, potentially preventing CPI from declining as expected.

Conclusion

The schedule for US CPI release in Taiwan time in 2024 is now confirmed, and investors should track it timely. On a deeper level, the CPI trend this year will be jointly determined by four forces: US economic fundamentals, commodity cycles, political events, and logistics risks.

Overall judgment: US CPI YoY growth will bottom in Q1, rebound briefly in Q2, and gradually decline in the second half. This trajectory is not necessarily positive for US stocks and risk assets, because even if CPI declines month-to-month, the annual rate may remain relatively high, and the Fed’s room for rate cuts will be limited, exerting ongoing pressure on asset valuations.