Will the 2026 oil price crisis emerge? Excess oil supply may push prices below $50.

If the Russia-Ukraine conflict moves toward peace, the global oil market will face new challenges. Goldman Sachs’s latest forecast indicates that by 2026, there will be a massive oversupply of 2 million barrels per day, which will be a key factor in suppressing oil prices.

Current oil prices continue to be under pressure

Entering late November, crude oil prices have declined for several consecutive days. The latest market data shows that WTI crude oil fell 0.29% to $57.80 per barrel; Brent crude oil fell 1.41% to $61.64 per barrel. Year-to-date, the two major benchmark crude oils have declined by a total of 19%, clearly under downward market pressure.

Supply expansion is the main reason

The fundamental reason for falling oil prices is the continuous increase in global production. Major oil-producing countries such as OPEC+ and the United States are increasing output. The International Energy Agency predicts that crude oil supply will hit a record high in 2026. This supply-side expansion has already been out of balance with demand growth.

Peace agreements intensify supply pressure

The Trump administration is urging Ukraine to agree to a plan to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict soon. Once a peace agreement is reached and U.S. sanctions on Russia are lifted, Russian oil will re-enter the global market, further exacerbating oversupply. Robert Rennie, Head of Commodity Research at Westpac Banking Corporation, stated that if sanctions are lifted, Brent crude oil prices will be capped above $65 per barrel and will find it difficult to break through.

The outlook for oil prices in 2026 is bleak

According to Goldman Sachs’s calculations, the global oil oversupply in 2026 will reach 2 million barrels per day. In such an environment, oil prices will face significant downward pressure. It is expected that the average price of Brent crude in 2026 will be $56 per barrel, and WTI crude will average $52 per barrel.

Oversupply, easing geopolitical tensions, and global production expansion—these factors combined are shaping a bleak outlook for the oil market in 2026. For investors bullish on oil prices, next year may face greater challenges.