#2026CryptoFlag It's been a long time since I sat in front of the computer to type. Following tradition and ritual, I still want to write something.

If you can still see these words at this moment, I believe you are not ready to leave this circle, whether out of genuine passion or dissatisfaction. By 2025, the most injured will be the old leeks in the crypto world—no need to say much, just like that.
While scrolling through my phone, I listened to Luo Zhenyu's New Year speech for 2026, which has become a habit of mine for about seven or eight years. But this year feels particularly strange. First, there are very few viewers; second, the comments are full of sarcasm and mockery. It seems everyone is less satisfied or happy. Ordinary people's lives are becoming increasingly difficult, and channels for expressing opinions are shrinking. The cognitive gaps and ideological iterations within the circle sometimes make people feel like they are suffocating.
Watching Mr. Luo still seriously ramble, I feel myself gradually drifting away from this circle. Maybe because the industry I work in is facing profitability difficulties this year. I always feel his topics are quite illusory—AI, future healthcare, big health industry—full of happiness and positive energy, making people think that ordinary people can easily enter this industry, or that AI will make medical consultations free in the future.
Ordinary people have no right to get sick. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2025, my family’s supported medical GDP exceeds 30,000 yuan (based on insurance and commercial guarantees). I personally am very resistant to going to the hospital. Every time I leave the inpatient department, I can’t help but sigh at this unreal world. At our age, most small business owners no longer compete over cars, houses, women, or children. It’s as if everyone suddenly wakes up—quitting smoking and drinking, going to bed early and waking up early, sticking to exercise. Only with true health can life have more meaning.
Mr. Luo has obviously lost weight, and I am very envious. The wealthy all cherish life; it’s obvious he’s been working on self-adjustment. I should also learn from him. In 2025, I gained 8 kilograms, grew a chubby head and big ears. Although it looks very fortunate, only I know the emptiness inside.
Reflecting on 2025, my career was not smooth. Overall, it was still in contraction and regression. Although I anticipated this at the beginning of the year, I didn’t expect it to be so difficult. When the takeout wave swept in, I finally closed a store in the fourth quarter, and the new model planning also stopped. As for 2026, I currently have no particular expectations. Our talent reserve is somewhat weak, choosing to rest and recuperate, taking one step at a time, focusing on our small field. In physical investments, we still need to stay clear-headed and cautious.
Regarding investments, my wife said the fund lost money—exactly how much I dare not ask, but I can guess. My only trajectory is crypto. The bull market started in November 2022, with the peak on October 6, 2025. From the start of the bull market until now, the total holdings have indeed been profitable, but if calculated based on the account balance on January 1, 2025, it’s a loss.
The overall market in 2025 showed a pattern of decline-rise-decline. BTC was a disaster among many investment targets. ETH also failed to uphold the banner of cryptocurrencies. Many new and old mainstream altcoins floated in the fog of news and quantitative algorithms, ultimately entering winter under the control of new scythes.
The biggest lesson from this cycle is: after the rise of the AI concept, underestimating the capital scale that the seven giants of the US stock market will seize in the crypto market was a mistake. Wall Street and big companies only chase BTC; their overly optimistic configuration mode for mainstream altcoins is misguided. Even more wrong is blindly trusting politicians’ lies.
Looking back at 2025, if you missed the exit point at the summer or Mid-Autumn highs, it’s hard to come out unscathed. Maybe this is the so-called pain point of value investing. In this increasingly strange and risky investment market, how to grasp the big trend and avoid becoming a sacrifice on the battlefield?
Reviewing two rounds of crypto investment history, if you want to profit under FOMO, greed alone can lead to losses. Only value investing is the only way out—rationality. I find it hard to imagine what the result would be if I hadn’t fully allocated to BTC, ETH, and ADA, or if I had held all altcoins like in previous cycles. If I hadn’t sold 30% of my holdings and BNB, I would still be fully in now. What would my ending be?
Not completely退出, nor declaring victory, but psychologically I would be very anxious. So, from this perspective, looking at my current account returns and position distribution, I can only say I am qualified in 2025, but not excellent. As I mentioned in my second live broadcast in November, if I were truly excellent, I should have decisively exited after 1011, at least keeping 50% of my positions empty.
But I didn’t do that, so now I need to be responsible for my account and pay some interest costs for the New Year. I saw some friends in the comments say I didn’t lead everyone to escape the top, losing quite a bit. Honestly, when I saw that comment, I was a bit upset—after all, what I want to express and suggest may not necessarily be correct. In the past few years of trading analysis and reflection, I often remind myself that these are just my personal opinions. I am not a teacher, nor a master; my views are for reference only. You need to carefully consider your own situation.
Maybe that was a new friend—I don’t know his specific situation; it was his first comment. A few days ago, I shared this with a good friend, and she said I should feel lucky. After all, I didn’t see many complaints in the comments, and fans and loyal subscribers are all waiting. If you really care, keep writing, make yourself more rational and professional, and help more people.
Haha, I felt a very strong force—suddenly enlightened. But honestly, I am quite optimistic about some long-term mainstream altcoins I have been watching, and I have recommended a few times in comments and updates, including ETH, ADA, LINK, ONDO, AAVE, etc. Yesterday, I spent three hours reviewing comments, posts, and live content. If you bought these coins, although our entry prices and configurations differ, I believe that at their maximum losses, the recommended entry point should not exceed 50%. But if you are now at a loss, I hope you can forgive my advice. I will be more cautious in the future—no longer blindly recommending coins, no longer rashly expressing opinions. Also, please prepare for entry and exit according to your own situation.
The last question from a friend who guided me was very practical: do I still believe in the crypto market in 2026? Honestly, I still believe. It’s very difficult to clarify all viewpoints in a short time. The future looks good, but the process will be very tough. As I wrote in the subscription update, I won’t deceive myself because I am clear about which coins I hold, at what numbers I can profit, which can be held long-term, and which should be cut losses timely. So I still look forward to the first quarter of 2026. I know I can’t change my fate in the crypto world, but if I operate cautiously, the capital return rate should be slightly higher than in physical catering.
Sometimes, I can be so calm and optimistic because I look at my daughter’s long-term account—that’s the account she will use for college in the future. I understand why I chose this configuration and can have long-term expectations and patience for this fund.
Time is almost up, I need to publish this article before 12 o’clock. To end my 2025 summary with a quote I saw on Xiaohongshu: The road is still long, let’s get through the storm together, watch out for each other, and encourage each other.
Your choices in the past few years have led to your current situation. Your current choices will shape your future life.
If you don’t prepare in advance, the days ahead will be very bleak. If a person has a long-term vision, whether in life or investment, they will ultimately become a winner.
In life, cherish every income. In investment, prefer long-term strategies. When quality assets fall to low levels, bet on growth over the next few years. While you are still worried about short-term fluctuations over a few days, others are already planning their layout for the next few years.
Without the right mindset, the results will be very different. I sincerely wish that friends who pay attention to and watch this post in 2026 stay calm, face it optimistically, stay healthy, and prosper financially☕☕☕