Is this recent small rebound in Bitcoin a genuine breakout or just a trap? A few days ago, we conducted an emotional poll to see what everyone thinks.

The poll results are quite interesting—out of 149 votes, 79% believe it's a "trap to lure in longs, and there will be more drops," while the remaining 21% disagree. In other words, the mainstream market sentiment is: the structure of a big decline hasn't changed; it's just a rebound.

But that's just at the emotional level. Let's look at the data to see if it can confirm this judgment:

**Positions are piling up, but the rebound strength is weak**

The total open interest across the network is now 144 billion, up 2.56% from before. Interestingly, the price has only risen slightly, while open interest continues to climb. What does this indicate? Traders are using leverage to add positions, betting on a reversal. Once the trend turns, chain liquidations will be particularly fierce.

Trading volume has indeed been active, with 24-hour volume reaching 248.27 billion, an increase of less than 30%. But liquidation scale is also rising, with 24-hour liquidations at 4.11 billion, up 52%. This kind of volatility-driven rebound doesn't resemble a trend reversal at all; it looks more like emotional trading and leverage chaos.

**More longs, but enthusiasm cooling**

From the exchange's long-short ratio, the number of longs is indeed higher than shorts—1.21 on one major exchange, 1.27 on another. That's the problem: during the most crowded long positions in the rebound phase, it's also the easiest time to be "caught off guard and hammered."

Funding rates are also speaking. Positive rates are still present but have clearly weakened—on one exchange, the BTC funding rate dropped from 0.0049% to a lower level (a decline of over 50%), and another exchange saw an increase but the overall trend remains that bullish enthusiasm is cooling. It's like the bulls are gasping for air, not taking over the scene.

**Position assessment and trading ideas**

Currently, Bitcoin is around 93,700 yuan. The upper side looks like a ceiling for the rebound; unless volume can break through and sustain higher levels, the mainstream expectation is that failure to break higher will lead to a pullback.

Considering both sentiment and data, the probability of a trap and a sharp drop triggered by this small rally is relatively high. Based on this judgment, a short-selling strategy aligns better with the current situation:

**Suggested trading approach**
(Disclaimer: This is only personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice. Trade cautiously.)

- **Entry zone:** Gradually short in the 94,500–96,000 range, preferably closer to the upper side for better risk-reward
- **Stop-loss:** If the daily close is above 99,500, admit mistake
- **Take profit levels:**
- TP1: 90,900 (first support)
- TP2: 88,600 (key support)
- TP3: 83,000–80,600 (previous low test zone)

This is my current view on the market. Please analyze rationally.