Is the RMB against the USD aiming for 6.85? Goldman Sachs' outlook before 2026, how different is this round of appreciation?

The recent RMB appreciation wave has truly arrived.

According to the latest data, the USD onshore RMB has fallen below 7.08, and the offshore RMB has dropped even further to below 7.08, hitting a new low in over a year. Meanwhile, the CFETS RMB Exchange Rate Index has surged to 98.22, also a high for this year. Goldman Sachs’s latest forecast is even more bullish: it may reach 7.00 by the end of the year, and by 2026, the RMB against the USD could further appreciate to 6.85.

This is not accidental. Under the continuous rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the RMB’s appreciation potential has indeed been unlocked. But behind this appreciation lies a deeper logic—China’s central bank is actively promoting it. The daily midpoint prices are constantly guiding the exchange rate upward, and state-owned banks are frequently buying USD to stabilize fluctuations, jointly pushing the RMB higher.

From a broader perspective, this move has strategic significance. Demonstrating the RMB’s stability and strength is essentially about building credibility for internationalization. It reminds one of the 1998 Asian financial crisis when the RMB held firm without devaluation, ultimately establishing its position as a regional anchor currency. Today, in the context of global market turbulence, the resilience shown by the RMB is also a signal.

Kelvin Lam, senior analyst at Pantheon Macroeconomics, straightforwardly states that China seems to want to use the stable image of the RMB to strengthen international credibility. Kiyong Seong, Asia macro strategist at Société Générale, also agrees, believing that demonstrating the RMB’s robustness amid market volatility is a strong support for RMB internationalization.

Data speaks the loudest. During the 2018 trade war, the RMB was devalued by about 5%. But by 2025, the RMB has appreciated nearly 3%—a complete reversal. The Bank for International Settlements’ statistics are even more intuitive: since 2022, the daily trading volume of USD against RMB has surged nearly 60%, now reaching $781 billion, accounting for over 8% of global daily foreign exchange trading volume. What does this indicate? The activity of RMB in international markets is increasing, and the process of internationalization is indeed accelerating.

Goldman Sachs analysts conclude that, given the policy-level recognition and promotion of RMB strength, RMB internationalization has become a key policy for the Chinese government and is expected to accelerate significantly in the coming years. From this perspective, this current wave of appreciation is not just about exchange rate fluctuations but a structural shift—RMB is moving from a regional currency toward an international reserve currency.