Gold finally demonstrated the true strength of the bulls today. The Asian session hovered repeatedly between 4440-4455, and during the European session, it broke through the key resistance at 4455.67, then surged all the way to 4475, with the lowest only dropping back to 4428. Intraday volatility exceeded $47, with the current price at 4460, up slightly by 0.26% from yesterday. This tug-of-war between bulls and bears is indeed exciting.

**What is the driving force behind the market**

Today's rally can be attributed to two core factors. First, the US dollar index has been notably weak recently—manufacturing continues to contract, and expectations for Fed rate cuts are reigniting, significantly reducing the dollar's safe-haven appeal. Priced in USD, gold benefits directly from this. Second, the market is preemptively digesting tomorrow's non-farm payroll data. The consensus expects 165,000 new jobs, but institutions like Goldman Sachs and Citibank are even more pessimistic. Many funds are betting on weak data, which could prompt the Fed to accelerate easing measures, so they are positioning in gold as a hedge. Coupled with marginal changes in inflation data, it’s hard for gold not to rise.

Interestingly, US stocks also rose today, but the safe-haven and inflation-hedging characteristics of gold were not suppressed; instead, gold formed an independent trend.

**Technical outlook**

The bullish trend line remains intact, so holding positions is safe. On the 4-hour chart, MA7, MA20, and MA90 form a perfect bullish alignment. Although the price retreated from 4475, gold still stays above the short-term moving averages, and the upward momentum from the moving averages remains strong.

The 1-hour chart shows clearer signals—during the European session's rally, volume increased simultaneously, indicating genuine funds entering the market, not a false breakout. Even if a correction occurs, the price has not fallen below the short-term moving averages, and the bulls’ support remains solid.

**Practical trading suggestions**

Ahead of the non-farm payroll report, it’s better to be cautious and avoid overly aggressive actions.

Long opportunities: Wait for the price to retrace to the 4440-4450 zone and stabilize, then add lightly with a stop below 4430 (to avoid being swept out). Initial targets are 4475-4480; once broken, look for further upside potential.

Operations to avoid: Absolutely do not chase the rally. Currently, funds are leveraging expectations of the non-farm data, which can easily lead to false breakouts designed to trap retail traders.

**Key reminders**

Volatility often intensifies before non-farm data releases. Strictly adhere to stop-loss rules, avoid greed, and don’t rush in. It’s better to earn less than to lose your principal. Non-farm data usually has an inverse correlation with gold—strong data may suppress gold prices, while weak data could push prices higher. But during this pre-event phase, uncertainties are high. The best strategy is to follow the rhythm, protect against pullbacks, and secure profits steadily.