The military action between the United States and Venezuela over the weekend directly stirred the global financial markets. As the country with the largest oil reserves in the world, any change in the situation in Venezuela can shake energy market expectations, and this time is no exception—oil prices rose, and the US dollar, as a safe-haven asset, experienced a brief respite.

On the surface, war premiums pushed up the attractiveness of the US dollar. Concerns over disruptions in energy supply indeed strengthen demand for safe-haven assets like the dollar. But here’s a key question: how long can this boost last?

To be honest, relying on one or two geopolitical events cannot sustain the medium- to long-term trend of the dollar. The Federal Reserve’s rate cut cycle is still ongoing, mountains of US debt remain, and calls for de-dollarization worldwide are growing louder—these fundamental pressures do not disappear because of a geopolitical conflict. Therefore, yesterday’s dollar rebound is more likely just a phase of a short-term correction within a broader oscillation, not a trend reversal.

For traders, it’s important to recognize both the short-term volatility opportunities brought by geopolitical risks and to remain vigilant for the moment when war premiums fade. That’s the professional attitude towards risk management.