2026-01-06 12:20:15

"Everyone is buying, if you don't buy, you'll lose out!" "It's fallen so badly, hurry up and run!"—You've probably heard these kinds of voices many times, right? Every time the market is turbulent, there are always a bunch of people driven by emotions to chase highs and sell lows. I've seen it too many times: people rush in when greed is at its peak, and panic out when fear consumes rationality, ending up perfectly stepping into all the traps.

To be honest, the game rules of the crypto market are like this: a few people make most of the money. When everyone on the streets is talking about crypto assets, it's actually time to see the bigger picture; conversely, when everyone is shouting "Crypto is dead," the real opportunities are quietly emerging.

Let me share my own contrarian strategy with you. First, you need to understand a cycle that the crypto market cannot escape: accumulation phase → upward phase → distribution phase → downward phase. Emotions act like a magnifying glass for this cycle, amplifying all fluctuations.

How to judge where emotions are? Just look at the Fear and Greed Index. An index below 20 indicates extreme fear, above 80 indicates extreme greed. Based on my practical experience, when the index drops below 20, it's the window to allocate high-quality assets; once it surges past 80, it's time to consider taking profits gradually.

For example, during March 2025, the hype around crypto topics on social platforms surged by 300%, and the Greed Index soared to over 90. I warned those around me to reduce holdings at that time, and sure enough, the market adjusted within a few weeks.

The core of contrarian investing is actually very simple: when others are panicking, you stay calm; when others are crazy, you stay cool. But the key is choosing the right targets—not every declining coin is worth picking up. My screening criteria are very clear—three conditions must be met: the fundamentals are still good (no signs of project abandonment in technology or team), valuation is at a historical low, and smart money is quietly increasing their holdings. For specific operations, using a phased approach to deployment can minimize risks.

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PuzzledScholar

· 01-09 12:13

That's right. During the March wave, I also started reducing my positions when I saw the greed index soaring over 90. Friends were still shouting buy buy buy, but two weeks later, they were directly trapped. Now, I am quietly picking up quality projects at low levels, waiting for the next wave.

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LiquidityWitch

· 01-09 09:46

Well said, emotions are indeed the biggest enemy. I've also fallen into many traps. When others are FOMO, I am sleeping; when others panic, I am buying the dip. Simple and effective. That fear index is really incredible. Every time I see it spike to 80, I start reducing my position. I got caught again this time. But you still need to look at the fundamentals, or you might end up picking worthless coins haha.

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PessimisticOracle

· 01-08 21:22

That's right, it's that simple and straightforward. Doing reverse operations can really make money, but most people simply can't stick to it. I saw the index soar to over 90 once, and indeed some people decisively reduced their holdings. The key is psychological resilience—can you stay calm while others are going crazy? It's tough. However, I have some doubts about how to select targets; how do you determine which money is "smart money"? I believe in this logic, but executing it is extremely difficult. I've been using the emotional cycle theory for a long time, and it has never failed. It's quite accurate, but the problem is that most retail investors can't see their own emotions clearly. Instead of studying the index, it's better to study your own mindset. I agree with the idea of phased deployment, but the prerequisite is having enough principal reserves.

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CrashHotline

· 01-06 12:50

That's right, it's just the opposite. The best entry point is actually when most people are being squeezed the hardest. Really, I couldn't help but buy when the index soared over 90, but I eventually had to cut some positions. Looking back, it wasn't too bad. I agree with the screening criteria; even if a bad project drops a lot, it's still a trap. Wait, your March case... are you talking about that wave? I've heard quite a few times about the theory of being greedy when others are fearful, but the key is to have stop-losses, otherwise you'll keep getting trapped. This kind of contrarian thinking is too psychologically demanding for retail investors. I can't do it—when others panic, I stay steady. DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) indeed reduces risk, but you need spare cash to play.

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MEVHunterNoLoss

· 01-06 12:48

I've been playing with this reverse approach for a long time. The problem is that most people simply can't do it; they get scared and lose confidence when prices drop.

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DevChive

· 01-06 12:47

When the index was over 90, I couldn't hold back either, and I'm still eating dirt... Thinking in reverse is easy to say, but the hardest part is maintaining the mindset when actually executing.

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ForkTongue

· 01-06 12:31

That's right, but you have to do the opposite. When I see the screen full of "buy" calls, I start reducing my positions. --- I also experienced the index going over 90 once; it really dropped within a few weeks. Now I’ve learned to be smarter. --- The core is not to follow the trend, but the hard part is how to find truly potential targets. --- The logic of the greed index is indeed very useful, saving me a lot of losses. --- Batching into positions is brilliant; it reduces risk while allowing you to enjoy the rebound. --- The biggest fear is choosing the wrong coin; even the best contrarian strategies are useless if that happens. --- I've heard too many stories of "this time is different," and they all ended up losing badly. --- Waiting until everyone calls for losses is the real opportunity; that’s no lie. --- The problem is most people simply can't wait that long, their mindset collapses. --- The accumulation phase tests people the most, but that’s when you can really turn things around.

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