Record levels await gold in 2026.. Gold price forecasts rise towards $5000

Can gold reach $5000 per ounce by 2026? This question has become a hot topic after the precious metal achieved bold jumps in 2025, touching $4300 in October before retreating to $4000 in November.

Current data indicates that gold price forecasts for the coming days and the following years tend to be bullish, especially with ongoing geopolitical tensions and the weakness of major currencies against easing central bank policies.

Why is gold rising strongly?

Unprecedented investment demand

Global demand for gold reached 1249 tons in the first half of 2025, a 45% increase in value compared to the previous year. New investors are entering the market strongly, with 28% of new investors in developed markets adding gold to their portfolios for the first time.

Gold ETFs (ETFs) absorbed massive inflows totaling $472 billion, approaching the all-time peak of 3929 tons.

Central banks are buying aggressively

44% of the world’s central banks now hold gold reserves compared to only 37% in 2024. China continued its purchases for the twenty-second consecutive month, adding 65 tons alone, while Turkey supported its reserves above 600 tons.

The World Gold Council expects these purchases to continue as a key factor supporting demand through the end of 2026.

Supply is unable to keep up, and the gap widens

Although production reached 856 tons in Q1 2025 (only 1% annual increase), demand is growing faster. Extraction costs have risen to $1470 per ounce, hindering expansion in production.

Recycled gold decreased by 1%, as owners prefer to hold onto their stock anticipating further gains.

What’s happening with the Federal Reserve and the dollar?

Rate cuts support gold price expectations

The Federal Reserve cut rates to 3.75-4% in October 2025, and market expectations price in an additional 25 basis point cut in December. The bank may target 3.4% by the end of 2026, according to BlackRock forecasts.

Every rate cut weakens the dollar and reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

The dollar declines 7.64%

The dollar index fell from its peak in early 2025 by about 7.64%, supported by expectations of rate cuts and weaker growth. The inverse relationship between the dollar and gold is clear: as the former weakens, the latter strengthens.

10-year bond yields declined from 4.6% to 4.07%, improving gold’s position as an investment asset.

Geopolitical tensions favor the metal

Uncertainty around Taiwan and Middle East tensions added 7% to demand on an annual basis. Investors seek safe havens, and gold is the top choice.

When security conditions worsened in July 2025, prices jumped above $3400. In October, as tensions increased, we reached $4300.

Gold price forecasts for 2026: what do analysts say?

HSBC: $5000 in the first half

HSBC is very optimistic, expecting gold to reach $5000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, with an annual average of $4600.

Goldman Sachs: $4900

Goldman Sachs raised its forecast to $4900, citing strong inflows into gold funds and continued central bank buying.

Bank of America: $5000 with caveats

Bank of America aligns with HSBC on the potential peak of $5000 but warns of a possible correction if investors start taking profits.

J.P. Morgan: $5055 by mid-2026

J.P. Morgan projected an average of $3675 in Q4 2025, then a jump to $5055 by mid-2026.

Consensus around $4800–$5000

Most major analysts agree that the potential peak will be between $4800 and $5000, with an annual average ranging from $4200 to $4800.

What about the downside correction? Is it possible?

HSBC warned that momentum might weaken in the second half of 2026, with a correction toward $4200 if profit-taking begins.

However, the bank rules out a drop below $3800 unless a major economic shock occurs.

Goldman Sachs warned of testing the “price credibility” above $4800, especially with weakening industrial demand.

Nevertheless, Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank see that gold has entered a new price zone that is difficult to break downward, as investors have reassessed its role as a long-term asset, not just a short-term trading tool.

Technical analysis: where are we now?

Latest update (November 21, 2025):

• Current price: $4065.01
• Peak: $4381.44 (October 20, 2025)

Key levels:

Main support: $4000 – if broken with a clear daily close, we may see a correction to $3800 (Fibonacci 50%)

First resistance: $4200

Second resistance: $4400

Third resistance: $4680

Momentum indicators:

RSI at 50: indicates a neutral market, neither overbought nor oversold

MACD: above zero, confirming the overall bullish trend

Forecast: the price may remain in a sideways range between $4000 and $4220 in the near term, with a positive outlook as long as it stays above the main trend line.

Gold price outlook in our region

In Egypt: CoinCodex forecasts suggest gold could reach 522,580 EGP per ounce, a 158.46% increase from current prices.

In Saudi Arabia and the UAE: If the $5000 level is achieved globally, it could translate to approximately 18,750–19,000 SAR (at an exchange rate of 3.75-3.80) and 18,375–19,000 AED.

Note: These are approximate forecasts dependent on exchange rate stability and continued global demand.

Summary

Gold price forecasts for the coming days are promising but conditioned on certain factors:

✓ If real yields continue to decline and the dollar remains weak, the precious metal is poised to reach new record highs possibly approaching $5000.

✓ If inflation recedes and market confidence returns, gold may enter a long-term stabilization phase without reaching the targeted levels.

✓ Central banks and new investors support the price from below, limiting the likelihood of a sharp collapse.

✓ Profit-taking may cause temporary corrections but not a dramatic fall.

Bottom line: 2026 could be the year of actual gold, transitioning from a crisis metal to an institutional investment asset.