[Investment Analysis] The filtering logic for hundredfold and tenfold coins is very different

When it comes to the investment potential of altcoins, many people focus solely on 100x coins. However, in a bull market allocation, balancing between 10x and 100x coins is essential. Why? Because not all low-market-cap projects can skyrocket; some 100x targets may only see modest gains or even lose money in a bull market. Conversely, 10x coins, while having a lower profit ceiling, offer a guaranteed lower bound.

10x Coins vs 100x Coins: Risk and Reward Trade-off

100x coins are usually projects with small market caps, lacking institutional recognition, and insufficient community enthusiasm. Once these coins explode, they have the potential to multiply by 100, but due to these characteristics, the variables are highly unpredictable. If they lack funding attention, institutional support, or if the project team makes major mistakes, even if the bull market temporarily boosts the price, the project may already be heading toward decline—only fully revealing during the bear market.

10x coins are different; they are typically projects already recognized by the market fundamentals, with clearer expectations. Holding them during a bull market offers higher chances of profit, though the maximum upside may be limited. Therefore, a reasonable approach is to allocate to both types: use 10x coins to stabilize the baseline and 100x coins to gamble on high returns.

Criteria for Selecting 10x Coins: Starting with Industry Leaders

Market Cap Opportunities of Industry Leaders

First, recognize that 10x coins are mainly industry leaders in their respective sectors. However, not all leaders are suitable; certain sectors should be excluded, such as: Bitcoin and Ethereum in public chains, declining lending sectors, decentralized derivatives, DAO organizations, and other areas lacking innovation.

For other sector leaders, the key judgment point is the market cap gap. For example, the total market cap of DEXs once hit a record high of $110 billion. After the bear market, it’s now only $14.57 billion, leaving about an 8x room to rebound. The leader, Uniswap (UNI), has also launched innovative features like V3 and UniswapX, which alone suggest a 10x growth potential.

The same logic applies to emerging sectors. For instance, the new Layer 2 project OP has a current market cap of $2 billion, while the veteran Polygon (MATIC) once reached $26 billion. OP still has 3.5x room to grow, and with sector development momentum, surpassing 10x is not difficult.

Selecting 10x Coins Outside of Sector Leaders

Within projects that are not sector leaders, look for the following signals:

1. Project Operation Status
Check CoinMarketCap for sufficient trading volume, stable price trends, and whether the project has been listed on top-tier exchanges. On-chain tokens should have good liquidity, and social media (Telegram, Discord) should show genuine community engagement.

2. Background and Recognition
Assess genuine discussion and high enthusiasm on YouTube and Twitter. Check if founders have public accounts, and whether the project has media coverage. Use sites like Chainbroker to verify investment institutions involved, looking for participation by well-known VCs and influencers. The official website and data platforms like Dextool should show a continuous upward trend in trading volume and TVL.

3. Tokenomics Supporting Explosive Growth
This is the core factor. Compare FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) and MC (Market Cap): if future token releases are large and close to full circulation, focus on FDV; if FDV is too high, it may hinder price explosion, so look at MC instead. Projects with lower current market cap but undervalued fundamentals are more worth attention than top-ranked projects within the same sector.

4. Price Psychology
Don’t underestimate the psychological impact of unit price. Coins priced below $1 are more likely to trigger buying psychology. For example, tokens like SHIB, where hundreds of millions of tokens can be bought for just a few dollars, are highly attractive to retail investors and easier to attract subsequent capital inflows.

5. Listing Method and Circulation Distribution
Fair launches are equitable but may lack funds; in such cases, project hype and support from influencers become critical. For pre-minted tokens, check VC and team holdings, lock-up periods. Quality projects usually don’t sell large amounts early on.

6. Whale Holdings and Token Empowerment
Check whale holdings on blockchain explorers; if whales hold large amounts early, it often indicates whale control, which can help push prices up. Token empowerment should be verified from whitepapers; projects with clear token utility tend to have greater upside potential. For example, recent trends involving inscriptions (铭文), where any chain involved with inscriptions sees related ecosystem tokens surge, demonstrate how token utility can generate short-term demand spikes.

Continuous Monitoring: From News to K-line

After identifying candidate projects, ongoing observation is crucial. Regularly search for related news in major domestic and international media, compare with project roadmaps, and confirm progress. Pay special attention to positive news about token utility and token burn, combining technical analysis (K-line) to capture short-term opportunities.

If recent news reports are frequent, it indicates either rising project popularity or increased marketing efforts—both situations warrant close attention to secondary market price movements.

This is the complete framework for selecting 10x coins. Once you understand the standards for 10x coins, you can better reverse-engineer the unique characteristics and selection logic of 100x coins.