The争夺候选人 for the Federal Reserve Chair always triggers my thoughts on historical cycles. Seeing the probability of Haskett rising from 54% to 61%, I recall those decision moments before and after the 2008 financial crisis—each shift in monetary policy direction profoundly changing the subsequent market rhythm.

Do you remember the policy trajectories of Bernanke, Yellen, and Powell over the years? From quantitative easing to balance sheet reduction, from zero interest rates to aggressive rate hikes, each chairman's style shapes the shape of the cycle. Now, with Haskett, the Chair of the Economic Committee, entering the competition, and Rieder from BlackRock also participating in the interview at the Hailu Manor, what does this reflect? It’s market anxiety and anticipation about a new round of policy directions.

I have experienced many such moments. Around the time Trump took office in 2016, market expectations for the Fed Chair kept oscillating. At that time, the cryptocurrency market was still small, but the ripples from the Fed’s policy shift were already perceptible. When the pandemic erupted in 2020, unlimited QE shattered all expectations, followed by soaring inflation in 2021 and aggressive rate hikes in 2022—these were not sudden surprises but inevitable results of policy framework choices.

Now, re-examining this new Chair race, the key is not what his name is but what kind of policy philosophy he will adopt. This will determine the global liquidity landscape in the coming years and influence the direction of all risk assets. History shows us that the impact of a Chair’s selection is often deeper than market initial expectations.