#美联储政策 Recently, I've been observing the big moves traders are making in US Treasury options and have some thoughts I want to share. They are betting that the 10-year US Treasury yield will return to 4% within a few weeks, with $80 million in premiums poured into options in just one week, and options contracts surged by 300%—this level of activity is indeed significant.

But this also reminds us of one thing: the market is always full of various bets and expectations. No matter how clever traders are, the Federal Reserve's policy direction is hard to predict with certainty, and economic data is constantly changing. Seeing the 10-year yield fluctuate between 4.16% and 4.20% already indicates the market's uncertainty.

In such an environment, more important than chasing yield movements is maintaining solid position management. Regardless of how the bond market fluctuates, the stability of core asset allocation is the foundation of long-term wealth security. Overly following market sentiment often leads us to make hasty decisions amid volatility.

The recommendation is still to return to fundamentals: assess your risk tolerance, determine a reasonable asset allocation ratio, and then hold patiently. Macro factors like Federal Reserve policies and yield trends will keep changing, but your long-term mindset and risk management strategies are what truly help you navigate cycles.

Believe in the power of time; it’s more reliable than trusting every market fluctuation.