Bitcoin experiences a wave of decline, and the comment section explodes. "It must be the big players dumping again" "Is there some bad news..." ... but if you look closely, nothing has actually happened, and the coins are still falling. Have you ever thought that maybe it's not these reasons at all?

Today, let's talk about something that truly impacts the entire crypto industry—macro liquidity.

Don't get it wrong, macro liquidity isn't about how much money there is, but whether the market is willing to take risks with money. When money is cheap and easy to borrow, even the most uncertain investments find buyers. Bitcoin, tech stocks, high-growth stocks—they all look attractive. But once money starts getting more expensive, the first to be discarded are these volatile "risk assets," with Bitcoin often leading the way.

What is the most direct factor affecting liquidity? The expectation of interest rate hikes. Remember this: the market's real fear is never that interest rates have already been raised, but that the expectation of rate hikes suddenly increases. People thought rates would soon be cut, but then realize they can't lower them in the short term. They thought the high-interest-rate cycle was about to end, but instead, it continues. At this moment, what does the market sense? That money will be expensive in the near future, so they rush to withdraw from assets that "may rise a lot but are unreliable" and move into more certain assets. Bitcoin is often sold off heavily during this time.

Another key variable—the US dollar. The strength of the dollar essentially means global capital is flowing into the US. Bitcoin is an asset priced in USD; the stronger the dollar, the more pressure on all USD-denominated assets. Even more painfully, dollar appreciation indicates that global capital is returning to the US, which directly impacts the attractiveness of overseas assets.