#比特币价格走势 Looking at the latest Polymarket data, the market bullish sentiment is clearly waning. The probability of BTC breaking 100,000 within the year has dropped from 10% on the 21st to 8% on the 23rd, a 20% decline in two days—this speed is noteworthy. Meanwhile, the forecast of 95,000 has decreased from 32% to 25%, and the probability of falling below 80,000 has actually increased from 18% to 15%, with the entire probability distribution moving noticeably downward.

From on-chain fund flows, this shift in sentiment is likely driven by large-scale capital movements reflecting adjusted expectations. When market confidence in recent breakthroughs diminishes, it usually indicates whales gradually adjusting their positions or a weakening willingness for new capital to enter. With less than two weeks until the end of the year, if the probability of breaking 100,000 continues to decline, it will directly impact year-end capital allocation strategies.

Currently, the market seems to be digesting previous gains, with pricing shifting from optimistic expectations back to a more realistic valuation range. The key moving forward will be the inflow and outflow of large contracts and the capital flows on exchanges—that's the true market sentiment.